The International Energy Agency's latest monthly oil report reveals that oil inventories in OECD countries have dropped to their lowest level in 35 years.
This decline, reaching a low not seen since December 1990, is primarily due to the accelerated release of emergency stockpiles following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
Global observable oil stocks have been falling by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day since the conflict began, including a significant draw of 143 million barrels in May alone.
A recent memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is viewed as a key step toward easing regional tensions, potentially paving the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of U.S. sanctions.
The IEA report forecasts that global oil supply will decrease by 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026, falling to 102.4 million barrels per day, before rebounding with an increase of 8 million barrels per day in 2027 to reach 110.3 million barrels per day.
However, unresolved operational and political risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could hinder the recovery of supply.
The agency projects that global oil demand will grow by only 2 million barrels per day next year, which could lead to a supply surplus in the oil market.
This potential oversupply may provide a breathing space for the market and create opportunities for nations to replenish depleted inventories or establish new strategic reserves.
In response to the current situation, countries are reassessing their energy strategies and related policies.
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