For Intel, 2025 has been a year of major developments, yet these may not have fundamentally altered its core narrative. The U.S. chipmaker welcomed a new CEO and secured massive investments from the U.S. government, NVIDIA, and SoftBank. These moves propelled its stock to an 86% annual gain, outperforming the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants and rival AMD. However, Intel’s critical manufacturing division still lacks a major external client—a necessity for turning its cash-draining foundry business into a sustainable operation.
Morningstar analyst Brian Colello noted, "Intel ended the year with some optimism that they could eventually become a pivotal U.S. chip manufacturer... whereas at the start of the year, that was far from certain." He added, "Still, there hasn’t been a game-changing deal to solidify Intel’s position in manufacturing."
Intel’s technological legacy is undeniable—it pioneered the world’s first microprocessor (or computer chip) and the x86 architecture, a foundational blueprint for chip design. Co-founder Gordon Moore formulated "Moore’s Law," which defined semiconductor innovation for over half a century. While peers shifted to a "fabless" model, outsourcing production to companies like TSMC, Intel clung to in-house manufacturing.
Yet years of missteps and poor investments left Intel’s manufacturing lagging behind TSMC, eroding its competitive edge. As rivals like AMD and Arm captured market share in server, laptop, and desktop CPUs, Intel’s foundry business lost the scale needed to survive. Former CEO Pat Gelsinger’s aggressive four-year turnaround plan—opening Intel’s fabs to external clients—spooked investors. The massive costs and uncertainty around its success alarmed Wall Street.
After Gelsinger’s ouster in late 2024, the appointment of CEO Tan Lip-Bu in March 2025 began restoring market confidence. Analysts noted that while Intel’s strategy remained largely unchanged under Tan, investors welcomed his measured tone, cost-cutting measures, and industry connections. A $9 billion investment from the U.S. government—initially tied to the CHIPS Act—further boosted sentiment, despite tensions over Tan’s China ties.
Technalysis Research analyst Bob O’Donnell emphasized, "Semiconductors are economically and geopolitically critical. Intel, as a truly American company, has the largest existing infrastructure." However, critics questioned the U.S. government’s 10% stake in Intel, citing potential conflicts of interest.
Additional investments—$2 billion from SoftBank and $5 billion from NVIDIA—lifted Intel’s stock further, though the NVIDIA deal did not include a chipmaking agreement.
**"It All Hinges on 14A"** Intel’s top potential foundry clients—NVIDIA, Apple, and Qualcomm—are also product rivals with long-standing ties to TSMC. With TSMC building $165 billion in U.S. capacity, Intel must prove its next-gen 18A and 14A processes are competitive.
Analysts say Intel’s 18A, initially for internal use, is a technical feat. Success with its upcoming Panther Lake (PC) and Clearwater Forest (data center) chips could persuade clients to adopt 18AP and 14A. Rumors suggest Apple might use 18AP for low-end chips.
BNP Paribas analyst David O’Connor estimates Intel has 12–18 months to secure a major client for 14A, calling it "the linchpin for Intel’s foundry survival." Others, like Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon, caution: "It took a decade to decline—why expect a faster fix?"
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