Gold and silver continue their rebound! Concurrently, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has taken action, adjusting the margin requirements and price limit bands for related gold and silver futures contracts. For the silver futures segment, starting from the close settlement on Tuesday, February 3, 2026, the margin level for the Ag (T+D) contract will be adjusted from 26% to 23%, and the daily price fluctuation limit will be adjusted from 25% to 22% starting from the next trading day. For the gold futures segment, starting from the close settlement on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, the margin ratios for contracts including Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 will be adjusted from 16% to 17%, with the daily price fluctuation limit adjusted from 15% to 16% starting from the next trading day; the margin for the CAu99.99 contract will be adjusted from 120,000 yuan per lot to 150,000 yuan per lot. Furthermore, in the broader market, spot gold rose approximately 6% intraday, while spot silver surged dramatically by about 10.00%. Previously, precious metals had retreated from their historical highs. Market observers issued successive warnings that this rally, particularly in silver, had been too sharp and too rapid. Looking further back, the rise in gold and silver has been primarily supported by a resurgence of concerns over geopolitical instability, anxieties about currency devaluation, and worries about potential challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence. Analysts stated, "The fundamental factors supporting gold currently are largely unchanged from before this correction." The factors mentioned include geopolitical risks, market expectations for more accommodative monetary policy, and gold's role as a diversification asset within investment portfolios. However, they added, "Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the short term, as the market continues to digest the recent dislocation." Some banks remain optimistic about gold's recovery and rebound. Deutsche Bank stated on Monday that it maintains its forecast for gold prices to rise to $6,000 per ounce. Analysts commented, "Gold's three consecutive days of sharp declines largely represent a long-overdue correction; however, the fundamentals that have driven the multi-year strength in precious metals remain intact, therefore not supporting a sustained major downturn. Considering the low likelihood of a rapid global shift into a tightening cycle and the fact that geopolitical concerns have not subsided, precious metals are more likely to experience a period of more moderate, gradual upward movement." Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Melbourne, said, "Whether it was the violent sell-off before or this equally rapid rebound, both indicate an extremely sensitive market that is being driven more by sentiment fueled by breaking news rather than having a clear direction—intense and uncomfortable volatility in the short term may become the norm." Investors are also monitoring the situation in Iran. US President Trump indicated that negotiations concerning a new nuclear deal could take place in the coming days. A potential breakthrough could diminish gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and exert downward pressure on its price.
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