Gold Market Trend Analysis: On April 29, the gold market demonstrated its characteristic volatility, with price fluctuations being a normal occurrence. Yesterday, gold prices faced a significant sell-off, experiencing a sharp decline as key support levels were successively broken. The bullish defense completely collapsed, leaving the market dominated by bearish sentiment. During the Asian session today, gold opened lower but gradually stabilized, entering a phase of consolidation at low levels. The previous sharp decline has temporarily paused, with the battle between bulls and bears easing as the market enters a period of accumulation and rest. The approaching Federal Reserve interest rate decision has created a cautious atmosphere, with investors hesitant to take strong positions. Additionally, the continued strength of the US dollar and US Treasury yields continues to suppress any upward movement in gold, while muted geopolitical risk sentiment fails to provide effective support, leaving the overall bias bearish.
Recapping yesterday's movement, gold opened near 4685 and briefly rallied to an intraday high of 4701 during the early session, but bullish momentum was clearly insufficient and failed to achieve a meaningful breakout. Subsequently, a strong US dollar rally and heightened expectations of a hawkish Fed provided an opportunity for bears to attack. Heavy selling pressure overwhelmed the market, triggering a unilateral downward trend for gold prices. Bears aggressively broke through multiple key support levels at 4650 and 4600, continually setting new near-term lows, with the price eventually touching a low near 4554 in the evening session, confirming bearish dominance. The daily chart closed with a large bearish candle, with short-term moving averages forming a clear death cross and a distinct bearish alignment, signaling that the market has firmly entered a downward trend.
From a technical perspective, key resistance above is concentrated near 4610, a level which was previously significant support. The major support below is positioned near 4550, representing the bulls' last line of defense in the short term. Currently, bearish momentum remains strong, with the KDJ indicator showing oversold conditions. While the short-term weak trend is difficult to reverse immediately, the significant decline yesterday has created potential for a technical rebound, although its strength has not yet materialized.
Trading strategy for the day remains aligned with the prevailing bearish trend, focusing on selling into rallies near resistance. If gold price rebounds to the 4605-4608 range, consider initiating short positions, with a unified stop-loss set above 4620. Short-term targets are set for the 4580-4565 range. It is crucial to follow the dominant downward momentum, avoid attempting to catch the bottom prematurely, manage position sizes carefully, and await clearer directional cues following the Fed's policy decision.
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