Gold Holdings Rebound Prompts Reassessment of Capital Allocation Room

On September 24, as gold prices pulled back, changes in fund holdings remained worth tracking. GTC Zeehui Capital noted that Kitco reported on September 23 that TD Securities estimates global gold exchange-traded funds have added roughly 6.3 million ounces since July, while active macro funds have also gradually restored net long exposure. The simultaneous appearance of price pressure and increased allocation has made internal market divisions clearer.

From the perspective of position capacity, GTC Zeehui Capital believes that TD Securities' estimate of active investor holdings remains below historical highs, indicating that potential allocation room still exists, but room does not equal inevitable inflows. Whether funds continue to add exposure also depends on volatility tolerance, portfolio demand, and trading conditions after price declines. Fund accumulation is more akin to medium-term allocation behavior, while net futures positions are more easily affected by leverage and risk budget adjustments. The two types of indicators should be observed separately and cannot be directly added together due to different calibers.

If price declines are accompanied by growing holdings, it is necessary to distinguish whether new buying is absorbing selling pressure or is temporarily unable to offset capital outflows from other markets. Changes in fund shares should also be cross-checked against the quantity of gold held, as asset size changes with gold price fluctuations, and looking only at monetary amounts may incorporate valuation effects and weaken the identification of true subscriptions and redemptions.

Regarding subsequent trends, GTC Zeehui Capital analyzed that the key point is whether new holdings can persist for several weeks and whether buying extends to more investors. TD Securities' judgment that gold prices could test above $5,000 by 2027 is a scenario forecast, and its realization still has conditions. Comparing changes in holdings with actual price reactions is more informative than citing target prices alone.