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Trading on the final session before the holiday saw mixed performance across the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing markets. On September 30, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher before moving in a narrow range, pulling back after touching resistance at 3,851 points, with gains eventually narrowing. The Shenzhen Component Index opened higher but drifted lower, closing with a small decline.
According to Wind Information, at the close the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3,842.19, up 0.31%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,887.62, down 0.11%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3,135.28, down 0.23%; and the STAR 50 Index closed at 1,530.01, plunging 2.51%.
In terms of turnover, combined trading value across the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing markets totaled 1.45 trillion yuan, a modest increase of about 28 billion yuan from the previous session, yet still at a relatively low level for the year. On the board, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, steel and banking sectors led the gains. Electronics, computers, machinery equipment and media sectors were among the biggest decliners. At the individual stock level, nearly 2,600 stocks closed higher, with 56 hitting the daily limit up, while more than 2,800 stocks fell.
Historical data shows that before the National Day long holiday, the A-share market often sees shrinking volume and rangebound trading, with a relatively high probability of capital returning and turnover picking up after the holiday. However, this pattern does not materialize every year, and it certainly cannot be simply equated with a guaranteed rise after the holiday. This year, the final two trading sessions before the holiday already saw a rebound, with some funds possibly positioning early for a post-holiday recovery. Therefore, whether the A-share market can extend its strength on the first day after the holiday will depend on whether incremental capital truly returns, whether heavyweight sectors can form a concerted effort, and whether overseas markets see any notable disruptions during the holiday period.
In addition, changes in trading volume are also a key area to watch. Some analysts point out that if turnover returns to active levels after the holiday, the sustainability of an index recovery will be stronger; if turnover continues to shrink, the market may remain dominated by sector rotation, making a broad-based rally difficult. From the perspective of capital structure, the pace of margin financing, northbound capital and institutional repositioning all merit attention, especially whether the technology sector, which underwent significant adjustment earlier, can regain capital support with volume confirmation.
Yang Changlong, a senior investment advisor at Jufeng Investment Advisory, said in an interview with the Financial Investment News that "two consecutive gains before the holiday help repair market sentiment, but whether the post-holiday market can move from a rebound to a more sustained recovery still depends on the resonance of trading volume, policy and listed company performance. For investors, there is no need to rush into chasing gains after the holiday; instead, they should combine changes in trading volume with individual stock performance verification to observe whether the market develops a clearer main line."
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