很难收手！本周这两个数据让美联储更难

华尔街见闻2022-09-17

软着陆的可能性已经远去。零售销售放缓之余，劳动力市场的火热让美联储加息再难有回旋余地。在本周四野村证券最新报告中，分析师指出，当前美国零售销售数据走弱和制造业指数放缓进一步增明了美国经济正在走向衰退。与此同时，依然火热的CPI数据和持续降低的首次申领失业金人数强化了快速加息的重要性，因为市场可能已经开始出现根深蒂固的高通胀。鉴于此，野村证券对美国2022年第三季度实际GDP的预测从年化的1.5%...

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Comments

hhyw
2022-09-19
hhyw
好
霹雳倍倍22
2022-09-18
霹雳倍倍22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$$蘋果(AAPL)$$法拉利(RACE)$$英偉達(NVDA)$$意法半導體(STM)$呵呵呵
- RT126:
  Thanks
Jasonsparrow
2022-09-18
Jasonsparrow
good
Walden.
2022-09-18
Walden.
這篇文章不錯，轉發給大家看
- MyKhoo:
  K
JaniceZhu
2022-09-18
JaniceZhu
近期的美聯儲講話顯示，委員們越來越擔心工資螺旋上升的風險，而不再持續的強勁失業申請人數表明，勞動力市場火熱，正推動當前工資上漲的加劇。
- A_Isopod:
  [冷漠]
- Qing2ming:
  [微笑]
- Milliamwong:
  看看就好
- HCBICE:
  [财迷]
- chang168:
  up
Paggie
2022-09-18
Paggie
閱

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This week, these two data make it more difficult for the Fed","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/866e8a1ace6ca8b8a49d00ea0c1b3c51","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"软着陆的可能性已经远去。零售销售放缓之余，劳动力市场的火热让美联储加息再难有回旋余地。在本周四野村证券最新报告中，分析师指出，当前美国零售销售数据走弱和制造业指数放缓进一步增明了美国经济正在走向衰退。与此同时，依然火热的CPI数据和持续降低的首次申领失业金人数强化了快速加息的重要性，因为市场可能已经开始出现根深蒂固的高通胀。鉴于此，野村证券对美国2022年第三季度实际GDP的预测从年化的1.5%下修至1.1%。分析师指出，在经济减速的情况下，美联储收紧金融环境的使命和需求也变为更加迫切，所谓在经济不陷入衰退的情况下抑制通胀的“软着陆”可能正在远去。核心零售销售显示消费放缓核心零售销售是GDP中个人消费的基本投入部分，尽管美国8月零售销售环比超预期，但核心数据却反映出放缓迹象。在使用8月CPI数据的加权组合对名义核心零售销售数据进行平减后，野村证券估计美国实际核心零售销售环比下降0.6%。分析师表示，这在一定程度上可能是因为7月份的数据受到亚马逊大促活动Prime Day的推动。不过即使将线上销售排除在计算之外，野村证券估计的实际核心零售销售仍然下降了0.3%。野村证券指出，这种放缓是消费部门的普遍趋势，在制造业的商业情绪中也越来越明显。随着消费行业的降温和制造业的不断放缓，即将到来的衰退信号似乎越来越大。分析师预计，美国经济的这场衰退将于2022年第四季度开始。而长期趋势来看，核心零售销售水平的高位以及零售商利润率的扩大继续对商品通胀施加压力，推动美联储加息以冷却经济活动。劳动力市场强劲首次申请失业金人数显示，美国劳动市场正在复苏。尽管消费和制造业活动持续降温趋势，但9月3日和9月10日这两周公布的就业市场数据继续保持强劲势头。9月10日首次申请失业救济人数从21.8万人降至21.3万人；持续申领失业救济人数再次超预期下降，为14.3万人，而普遍预测为14.78万人。分析师指出，虽然劳动力市场仍然是经济中为数不多的强劲部门之一，但强劲的劳动力需求是当前高通胀的一个驱动因素。近期的美联储讲话显示，委员们越来越担心工资螺旋上升的风险，而不再持续的强劲失业申请人数表明，劳动力市场火热，正推动当前工资上涨的加剧。野村证券认为，在预期通胀有意义地向目标下降之前，美联储需要冷却劳动力市场。因此，持续异常强劲的就业市场数据强化了加息力度的压力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9910902334,"gmtCreate":1663544978728,"gmtModify":1676537285707,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910902334","repostId":1182267949,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":663769230,"gmtCreate":1663492386325,"gmtModify":1676537278978,"author":{"id":"127367578255012","authorId":"127367578255012","name":"霹雳倍倍22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc676dd91955af30ed35cff84054f284","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"127367578255012","authorIdStr":"127367578255012"},"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">$法拉利(RACE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英偉達(NVDA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">$意法半導體(STM)$</a>呵呵呵","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$蘋果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RACE\">$法拉利(RACE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英偉達(NVDA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STM\">$意法半導體(STM)$</a>呵呵呵","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$$蘋果(AAPL)$$法拉利(RACE)$$英偉達(NVDA)$$意法半導體(STM)$呵呵呵","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2037b1a4c04ff4b222ecce68e3cbeb7b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/663769230","repostId":1182267949,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":103985765,"gmtCreate":1663511971250,"gmtModify":1663511975926,"authorId":4095412450481050,"author":{"id":4095412450481050,"idStr":"4095412450481050","authorId":4095412450481050,"name":"RT126","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71bd4d86dba111820dfaead92c1969c1","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-1","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Elite Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 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