The "Sina Finance 2025 Annual Conference & 18th Golden Kylin Forum" was held in Beijing on January 15, 2026, with the theme "The Start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, A New Economic Voyage – Reshaping Growth Paradigms, Co-creating Future Prosperity."
At this forum, Deng Qingxu, CEO of Sina Finance; Liu Shijin, Deputy Director of the Economic Affairs Committee of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and former Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council; Liu Shangxi, Member of the National Committee of the CPPCC, Researcher at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, and former President of the Academy; Li Daokui, Dean of the Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking and Professor at the School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University; and Li Ling, Deputy Director of the Economic Affairs Committee of the 13th National Committee of the CPPCC, Professor at the National School of Development at Peking University, and Director of the Peking University China Center for Health Development, attended the main forum and delivered speeches.
During the roundtable dialogue session, Wu Xiaoqiu, former Vice President of Renmin University of China, President of the National Academy of Financial Research, and National First-Class Professor; He Qiang, Professor at the School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics, and Honorary Director of the Institute of Securities and Futures; Liu Shuwei, Researcher at the Chinese Enterprise Research Center, Central University of Finance and Economics; Xia Chun, Founder and Chief Economist of智汇 Group; and Nie Junfeng, Chairman of Jinghua Family Office, held a dialogue on the theme "Promoting High-Quality Development of the Capital Market."
Deng Qingxu stated that reshaping growth paradigms requires reliance on scientific and technological innovation.
In his speech, Deng Qingxu, CEO of Sina Finance, remarked that looking back at 2025, it was a year of steady progress for the Chinese economy amidst challenging transitions. He noted that while the global economic landscape continued to adjust, with geopolitical games and industrial transformations intertwined, the Chinese economy, leveraging its strong resilience and vitality, withstood multiple pressures to achieve a development trend of stable progress and quality improvement.
Deng Qingxu pointed out that reshaping growth paradigms means breaking away from dependence on traditional growth paths and activating new drivers of development through scientific and technological innovation, institutional innovation, and model innovation; co-creating future prosperity requires the concerted and synergistic efforts of all parties, including the government, enterprises, the capital market, and the media.
"In this process, Sina Finance has always adhered to its original aspiration and bravely shouldered its mission. As a leading domestic financial information service provider, we are not only witnesses and recorders of economic development but also active participants and promoters," Deng Qingxu said.
Deng Qingxu also introduced that the "Zhima AI" system, independently developed by Sina Finance, is becoming the "second brain" for investors. The "Zhima AI" system possesses three core advantages: first, comprehensiveness, monitoring global key financial events and policy dynamics 24/7, automatically extracting risk and opportunity signals; second, depth, providing penetrating multi-dimensional analysis from the macro market to specific sectors, and down to individual stock fundamentals and fund flows; third, accuracy, deeply integrating data from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, exchanges, the National Bureau of Statistics, and international authoritative institutions to ensure every piece of information is traceable and verifiable, effectively avoiding misjudgments caused by AI hallucinations.
Liu Shijin expressed that the benefits of the Renminbi entering an appreciation channel outweigh the drawbacks.
Liu Shijin, Deputy Director of the Economic Affairs Committee of the 13th National Committee of the CPPCC and former Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, delivered a speech. He stated that this year, despite an unfavorable international environment, China's exports have maintained strong momentum, which is no easy feat and is an important reflection of the improvement in technological and industrial competitiveness.
Simultaneously, Liu Shijin mentioned that a large-scale goods trade surplus implies a corresponding reduction in domestic consumption and is one of the reasons for insufficient domestic consumption; from the perspective of long-term international trade trends, this is unsustainable. He suggested that in the next step, China should implement a strategy of basic balance between imports and exports, and while maintaining and enhancing export competitiveness, correspondingly expand imports, using the Renminbi more, or even primarily, for payment and settlement.
Liu Shijin emphasized the need to align the proportion of the Renminbi's various functions with the share of China's real economy in the global total, to promote the Renminbi to become a strong international currency relatively quickly and appreciate reasonably, thereby sharing in the international premium of China's super-large-scale economy. "The Renminbi entering an appreciation channel is generally more beneficial than harmful. It might affect exports in the short term, but in the medium to long term, it is conducive to enhancing productivity and promoting a faster iteration of competitive advantages."
Furthermore, Liu Shijin also discussed that as the attractiveness of real estate and bank savings declines, the incremental and stock of residents' assets will increasingly flow into the capital market. The increase in this source of fresh water will push the capital market into a developmental stage different from the past.
Speaking about the consumption structure, Liu Shijin stated that the so-called "insufficient demand" China currently faces is mainly insufficient consumption demand. Compared to the global average, China's consumption as a proportion of GDP is about 20 percentage points lower, a gap he termed a "structural deviation." Therefore, this gap must first be filled and corrected for China to become a major consumption country.
Liu Shangxi pointed out that the farmer issue is the key to achieving common prosperity.
Liu Shangxi, Member of the National Committee of the CPPCC, Researcher at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, and former President of the Academy, delivered a speech. Liu Shangxi noted that common prosperity is a difficult problem in the development of human civilization and requires a shift in development paradigms. Achieving common prosperity is a basic characteristic of Chinese modernization, which means it differs from Western modernization and implies a different development paradigm.
He believes that narrowing the distribution gap points to material aspects in the short term, but to people in the long term, because behind the distribution gap is a capability gap, and it is a gap between groups. Poverty is poverty of knowledge and capability, especially as a phenomenon between groups, often related to institutional mechanisms and not something that can be solved by individual effort alone.
Liu Shangxi emphasized that viewing common prosperity from the perspective of development paradigms also requires addressing the issue of reshaping distribution expectations. Distribution expectations concern the relationship between outcome fairness and opportunity fairness, typically embodied as opportunity fairness, while outcome fairness has become a fact. Narrowing the gap in outcomes should focus on baseline fairness, preventing polarization, and providing a safety net for creative destruction.
Liu Shangxi pointed out that from the perspective of social structure, China is still a society where farmers constitute the main body. Therefore, overall, the farmer issue is key to China's journey towards common prosperity, and solving the farmer issue is an important part of social transformation.
"Farmers are free to work as migrant laborers, but their family migration as social members is restricted. Migrant workers in cities cannot enjoy equal employment treatment as urban residents, nor equal treatment in areas such as children's education, elderly care, and subsidized housing. Social identity restricts the accumulation and utilization of human capital for farmer families, and educational mobility is limited. These are issues that need to be resolved through reform," Liu Shangxi stated.
Li Daokui expressed optimism about this year's stock market.
Li Daokui, Dean of the Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking and Professor at the School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University, delivered a speech. He stated that China's economic growth potential remains huge, and we must have firm confidence in this.
Li Daokui pointed out that to achieve an upgrade in development paradigms, the key is to upgrade from a traditional developmental government to a modern developmental government that promotes the comprehensive and high-quality development of the entire economy. In the short term, there are still many bright spots to look forward to in the Chinese economy.
However, he also mentioned that problems cannot be avoided; current issues must be solved, and the trend of declining economic growth must be reversed. Li Daokui直言 stated that the past "developmental government" model no longer meets the requirements of the new stage and urgently needs transformation. To this end, he proposed building a new framework for "Government and Market Economics."
Regarding real estate, Li Daokui suggested implementing an interest subsidy policy. "When young people buy houses now, they pay interest on one hand, and on the other hand, housing prices are falling, resulting in an overall loss of about 10% per year. I calculated that by allocating just 70 billion yuan, equivalent to a quarter of the fiscal funds for replacement programs, as interest subsidies for home buyers, it could leverage a market size of 280 trillion yuan, equivalent to 28 times the scale of the durable goods replacement program. Using a quarter of the funds to leverage a 28-fold effect compared to the replacement program."
Li Daokui also said there are many things to look forward to this year: First, housing prices in key regions can stabilize; second, this year's stock market should be optimistic. "Gold has performed well, everyone is buying gold, and blind faith in the US dollar is fading. It's time for A-shares to rise. From an international perspective, A-share assets offer outstanding value for money, which is something we can anticipate"; Third, the nominal GDP growth rate should see some recovery this year.
Li Ling stated that the scale of the new large health industry far exceeds that of real estate.
Li Ling, Deputy Director of the Economic Affairs Committee of the 13th National Committee of the CPPCC, Professor at the National School of Development at Peking University, and Director of the Peking University China Center for Health Development, delivered a speech. Li Ling mentioned that today's China is one of the world's most powerful industrialized countries, and in recent years, China's healthcare system reform has achieved certain results.
However, Li Ling stated that China's healthcare system reform also faces huge challenges, primarily from population aging. In the next step, China should strive to prevent diseases and reduce their occurrence as much as possible, while not treating aging as a disease and subjecting it to excessive medical treatment in hospitals.
Li Ling emphasized that the national strategy of "Healthy China" is a priority development strategy because people's health is an important标志 of socialist modernization. The shift in development paradigms means moving from a past focus on treating illness to a current focus on health, enabling people to get sick less and be healthier.
Li Ling stated that this requires governments at all levels, society, and individuals to implement the concept of prevention first, truly treating the health priority development strategy as a priority indicator for economic and social development. This is an investment in people, strengthening department coordination and efficient service supervision oriented towards health promotion.
Li Ling expressed that China is moving towards a new development paradigm era of "health +". If healthcare, pharmaceuticals, green food, wellness, the elderly care industry, and smart health are integrated, a new large health industry can be formed. She emphasized that this large health industry is a lifelong rigid demand for everyone, its scale is limitless, and it can completely far exceed the real estate industry because it will not only serve Chinese people but can also serve all of humanity.
Wu Xiaoqiu stated that the future growth of China's capital market is promising.
Wu Xiaoqiu, former Vice President of Renmin University of China, President of the National Academy of Financial Research, and National First-Class Professor, delivered a speech. Wu Xiaoqiu said that the positive trend of the capital market in 2026 should not change. As for why China's capital market has been able to achieve good development since September 24, 2024, Wu Xiaoqiu believes the most important reason is reform, with relatively systematic reforms carried out on the asset side, fund side, and institutional side, some of which are still持续推进.
Wu Xiaoqiu pointed out that the significant importance of such adjustments lies in improving market transparency and ensuring fair market rules, thereby restoring people's confidence and forming good expectations. Furthermore, China's economic structure is undergoing major changes, and many phenomena are difficult to explain with traditional economic theories. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to change perspectives and clearly see the market's growth prospects. The market is not only a barometer of the national economy but, more importantly, a key promoter of economic and industrial transformation.
Wu Xiaoqiu emphasized that the growth of China's capital market has its own logic, including both the logic of reform and the logic of industrial structure transformation. Therefore, under current conditions, its future growth is worth anticipating. Wu Xiaoqiu also stated that from a major trend perspective, the stock market performance in 2026 will be very good. Short-term declines, even significant declines, represent the best entry opportunities because the future market outlook is clear.
"However, ordinary investors often find it difficult to do this; they typically choose to exit when the market falls. If you are optimistic about the long-term trend, the market in 2026 will bring good returns. However, 'very good' does not mean the market will rise in a straight line; there will still be relatively large fluctuations during the process, which is also a test for investors," Wu Xiaoqiu said.
He also mentioned that in the AI era, Chinese retail investors face structural challenges, with some reporting that they were still not profitable even when the index was at 4100 points. If this happens, it may indicate that they do not fully possess independent investment capability. "Our market already offers many assets and tools to choose from, among which ETFs are a very good choice. They are structurally diverse, and their gains often outperform the returns from many individual investors' operations."
He Qiang stated that the CSRC has done a very good job in attracting medium- and long-term funds into the market.
He Qiang, Professor at the School of Finance, Central University of Finance and Economics and Honorary Director of the Institute of Securities and Futures, delivered a speech. He stated that for the capital market to achieve long-term healthy development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, it must first meet two important conditions, one of which is capital, specifically the stable supply of funds entering the market.
He Qiang recalled that when the A-share market fell below 2600 points in early 2024, the main reason for the market downturn was a large expansion in stock supply without a synchronous increase in funds, leading to a serious oversupply. Subsequently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) actively took measures to attract medium- and long-term funds into the market. "The CSRC has done a very good job in attracting medium- and long-term funds into the market, even specifically announcing related policies during the New Year holiday."
He Qiang pointed out that especially since September 24, 2024, incremental funds have continuously flowed in, driving the market to a strong rally. Recently, the market's daily turnover even approached a historical high of 4 trillion yuan, and stock indices rose rapidly. However, he also said, "Now the funds are entering the market too eagerly and rushing in too fiercely. With this kind of trend, it is difficult to guarantee the long-term healthy development of the stock market."
He Qiang believes that starting from 2026, the capital issue in the stock market is no longer the principal contradiction, and the focus of work should shift. To make the stock market perform well in the long run, efforts must be made to help listed companies continuously improve their quality and enhance their performance.
Using the US stock market as an example, He Qiang said that from 2009 to 2025, the Dow Jones Index rose from 12,000 points to nearly 50,000 points. The core support for this 16-year continuous rise was not simply ample liquidity but the sustained growth in the profits of listed companies.
"The reasoning is simple. During a continuous stock market rise, if company performance continues to decline, when the rally reaches a certain height and stock prices seriously deviate from performance, the price-to-earnings ratio will rapidly expand, market risks will accumulate sharply, and a situation of a sharp plunge after speculation is inevitable, making it difficult to maintain a stable trend," he said.
Liu Shuwei stated that even Musk praised宇树科技's robots.
Liu Shuwei, Researcher at the Chinese Enterprise Research Center, Central University of Finance and Economics, delivered a speech. Discussing the reasons for the surge in China's stock market, Liu Shuwei said the first reason is the驱动 of the economic cycle. According to the Kondratiev cycle theory, 2025 is the starting point of a new Kondratiev cycle, and its engine industry is new energy vehicles. The second reason is that anti-corruption efforts have improved the business environment for Chinese enterprises.
Additionally, Liu Shuwei pointed out that not only the CSRC but also other departments are making every effort to ensure the fair, reasonable, and compliant operation of the stock market. For example, the Supreme People's Procuratorate has issued a document stating that it will severely crack down on financial fraud. Why did trillions of yuan enter the market when the index was only a little over 4000 points? Because people see the take-off态势 of the Chinese economy. "Needless to say, even industry leaders like Musk, who himself has the Optimus robot project, have praised宇树科技's robots."
"People have亲眼 seen that China's stock market is becoming more standardized and transparent, which is why they dare to transfer their savings deposits and bank deposits into the stock market." Liu Shuwei believes that it is these factors together that have driven the bull market in China's stock market, and this time it is必然 a long bull market.
Liu Shuwei also mentioned that as a university teacher, what she is most concerned about now is the employment issue for university students. This problem must be solved at the source, ensuring that university graduates can achieve 100% employment.
She introduced that she is a理事 of the Heren Foundation. Cao Dewang, founder of Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co., Ltd., injected the assets he donated into the Heren Foundation, which then allocated them to Fuyao University of Science and Technology. The first cohort of Fuyao University of Science and Technology enrolled 50 students. Besides studying basic courses, these 50 students also participated in some research projects with major companies. Due to the influence of President Wang Shuguo and Mr. Cao Dewang, as soon as Fuyao University of Science and Technology opened, major companies came seeking cooperation. Currently, the school has very rich cooperative projects, and all 50 students have been pre-booked by major companies.
Xia Chun stated that Hong Kong may replace London as the second largest international financial center.
Xia Chun, Founder and Chief Economist of智汇 Group, delivered a speech. Xia Chun said that a financially strong country has six core elements: a strong currency, a strong central bank, strong financial institutions, a strong regulatory system, a strong international financial center, and a strong team of financial talents.
He believes that the rise of the stock market at the end of 2024 was mainly driven by two major factors: first, the arrival of the "Era of Awakening," where investors worldwide, including in mainland China,重新 recognized China's great achievements in the industrial revolution; second, the slow appreciation of the Renminbi driven by the trade surplus.
He pointed out that given the huge scale of the trade surplus, there is no longer a need to maintain a relatively low Renminbi exchange rate. A slow appreciation of the Renminbi will be beneficial for improving China's international environment, enhancing national welfare levels, and optimizing the development status of enterprises. Xia Chun predicted that in the next five to ten years, Hong Kong may replace London to become the world's second-largest international financial center.
Speaking about this year's stock market performance, Xia Chun said that a major悬念 this year is the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The market currently predicts one or two rate cuts, but the possibility of two, three, or even four cannot be ruled out. This may lead to relatively good performance in the first quarter, relatively volatile conditions in the second and third quarters, and potentially strong performance in the fourth quarter.
He advised investors to build two "wealth pyramids." The first is the overall family asset allocation structure, which should follow a logic from low risk to high risk from bottom to top. High-risk assets must be allocated sparingly, while low-risk assets must be allocated more heavily. The other is the asset allocation pyramid within the stock market, which should have three pillars: the technology sector, the cyclical sector, and the non-ferrous metals sector within commodities.
Nie Junfeng expressed that long-term companionship with China's stock market leads to "steady happiness."
Nie Junfeng, Chairman of Jinghua Family Office, stated that the transformation of asset allocation in the household sector is not only a shift from deposits to stocks but also an adjustment in the structure of household asset allocation after the proportion of real estate peaks.
Mentioning the cornerstone role of ETFs, Nie Junfeng said that in the process of conducting family heritage business, it has been found that from the US to Europe, in the underlying assets of long-term heritage "old money families," over 90% are ETFs, which can be described as the greatest truths are the simplest.
He concluded: "First, old, middle-aged, and young investors should all enter the market rationally and follow what is good; second, while rolling up sleeves and working hard, one must also keep eyes wide open and invest cautiously; third, it's not easy to say 'I love you' to China's stock market. We should accompany it with long-term affection to harvest steady happiness."
The forum's精彩 continues. On the afternoon of January 15, three parallel forums were held: the 2025 Technology风云榜, the 2025 Finance New Voyage Forum, and the 2026 Capital Market Outlook Forum. Numerous industry leaders will engage in in-depth discussions and share前沿 insights on hot topics in related fields. The 2025 Weibo Finance Night will also be held in the evening, gathering heavyweight guests and hot topics from the financial world to present a spectacular financial feast. You are sincerely invited to continue关注 and join this journey of碰撞 between thought and wisdom.
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