The gold market is currently experiencing significant volatility. In mid-July 2026, as tensions between the US and Iran escalated sharply, the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has become the greatest uncertainty for the global energy supply chain, placing significant downward pressure on gold prices. Although geopolitical risks typically benefit traditional safe-haven assets like gold, current concerns over inflation triggered by surging oil prices and reinforced expectations of interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve have made it difficult for gold to shine as a safe haven in the short term. Last Friday, spot gold retreated slightly to around $4119 per ounce, and after this week's opening, it fell further below the key $4100 level. As of 08:30, it touched a low of $4061, reflecting complex and cautious market sentiment.
Technical Analysis and Outlook
From a technical perspective, the daily chart for gold shows a clearly weak pattern. The price remains suppressed below the short-term moving averages, which have turned downward to form resistance, with the price center gradually shifting lower. Rallies have been feeble, with every minor recovery encountering resistance and falling back. Resistance near the middle Bollinger Band has been tested repeatedly, raising the risk of a further decline. The overall daily trend is bearish, with no clear signs of stabilization or reversal. The short-term outlook is for weak, oscillating downward movement, warranting caution for a continuation of the correction. Key resistance to watch on the upside is around 4130. On the 4-hour chart, the market opened lower and weakened directly in the early session. After opening, the rebound lacked strength, with prices continuing to operate under pressure below the short-term moving averages, which are forming layered resistance. Rebounds have repeatedly been rejected, indicating a clear bearish rhythm. On the indicators, the MACD's green bars continue to expand, suggesting gradually strengthening bearish momentum. The market is in a weak zone with no clear oversold stabilization signals. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the price moving along the lower band. Intraday focus should be on the resistance from the moving averages above, guarding against further declines. Risk management is crucial; await clearer stabilization signals before planning new positions. Intraday resistance is in the 4120-4130 zone, while support lies at 4040-4020.
Summary and Trading Strategy
In summary, the recommendation is to consider short positions on a rebound near 4080, with a stop-loss above 4095, targeting the 4050-4040 area. Within this target zone, one could consider testing long positions.
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