Abstract
On Holding AG will report fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on March 3, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors tracking revenue momentum, profitability metrics, and channel mix against consensus forecasts and the company’s recent operating cadence.Market Forecast
Consensus for the quarter points to revenue of $723.68 million, up 21.86% year over year, with estimated EBIT of $74.48 million, up 26.40%, and adjusted EPS of $0.20, up 16.25% year over year. Margin forecasts are not formally provided in the same dataset, but the mix-sensitivity implied by recent results suggests attention will remain on the sustainability of gross margin and the trajectory of net profitability versus the comparable period. Wholesale is expected to remain the larger revenue base, while a healthy Direct-to-Consumer mix underpins margin resilience and average selling price control. The most promising segment remains Direct-to-Consumer, which generated $314.70 million last quarter, a base that supports pricing power and gross margin stability through full-price sell-through and improving omnichannel execution.Last Quarter Review
On Holding AG delivered quarterly revenue of $794.40 million, a gross profit margin of 65.75%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $119.00 million, a net profit margin of 14.97%, and adjusted EPS of $0.47, which increased 193.75% year over year. Net profit improved sharply on a sequential basis, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 390.71%, highlighting operating leverage and disciplined expense execution exiting the year. Wholesale contributed $479.60 million and Direct-to-Consumer contributed $314.70 million, accounting for 60.37% and 39.61% of revenue, respectively, underscoring a balanced multi-channel model that supported last quarter’s performance.Current Quarter Outlook
Wholesale channel trajectory
The wholesale channel remains the primary revenue engine and the mechanism through which new seasonal collections scale rapidly across retail partners. With last quarter wholesale revenue at $479.60 million, wholesale’s contribution at 60.37% of the mix underscores the breadth of distribution and the scalability of product launches. For the quarter to be reported, consensus revenue of $723.68 million implies normal calendar seasonality from the third quarter’s $794.40 million level while still delivering double-digit year-over-year growth, a pattern consistent with the company’s expanding shelf space and widening door count. Investor debate within wholesale centers on the balance between replenishment orders and forward bookings, with attention on sell-through and inventory positions at key accounts as a determinant of reorder cadence. Pricing discipline and tighter allocations on higher-demand franchises can aid average selling prices, though any shift toward promotional environments at retail would pressure gross-to-net realization and require offset through mix, operational efficiency, or freight savings.Direct-to-Consumer and margin dynamics
Direct-to-Consumer at $314.70 million last quarter represented 39.61% of total revenue, a mix that has historically supported gross margin advantages through full-price selling and a more curated assortment. The prior quarter’s gross profit margin of 65.75% and net profit margin of 14.97% provide a useful reference for how channel mix and product mix can translate into profitability. For the fourth quarter, consensus calls for adjusted EPS of $0.20 and EBIT of $74.48 million, both up year over year despite seasonal downshifts from the third quarter, suggesting continued operating leverage even as the company invests in growth. The durability of DTC conversion rates in e-commerce and the ongoing contribution from recently opened brand stores remain practical levers for unit economics, particularly where the brand can maintain limited promotions and high full-price sell-through. Execution on localized merchandising, inventory depth in core sizes, and supply-chain reliability will be watched closely, as these details often determine whether mix can offset any noise in logistics or retail partner markdown cycles.What could move the stock this quarter
Guidance for full-year 2026 revenue and profitability is likely to be the most consequential driver of the share price reaction, as the Street calibrates how the current double-digit growth trajectory translates into operating profit expansion. Investors will scrutinize any commentary on gross margin sustainability, with special attention to channel mix, product mix between footwear and apparel, markdown cadence, and logistics cost normalization relative to last year. The company’s leadership update—appointment of a new CFO effective May 1—adds focus to capital allocation, expense discipline, and the cadence of investment in stores, digital, and supply chain; a clear bridge from revenue growth to EBIT and EPS in 2026 would likely influence valuation multiples. Currency and cross-border costs can add volatility to reported results, but where the company can sustain healthy DTC penetration and keep full-price sell-through robust, the model tends to absorb such variability with less pressure to engage in discounting. Finally, any updates on the product roadmap and innovation cycles—paired with a read-through on demand signals from key geographies and categories—will inform whether the current forecast trajectory of $723.68 million in revenue and $74.48 million in EBIT can be outperformed.Revenue growth and profitability bridge
The quarter’s forecast revenue of $723.68 million represents a 21.86% year-over-year increase, indicating that despite seasonal revenue normalizing from the third quarter peak, On Holding AG remains on a double-digit growth path. Importantly, the implied EBIT of $74.48 million, up 26.40% year over year, suggests margin leverage year on year, even as investment continues. The last reported quarter’s profitability—$119.00 million in GAAP net income with a 14.97% net margin—highlights how scaling DTC, product mix, and operating efficiency can flow through the income statement. For the quarter in view, areas to watch for margin bridge include freight and duty trends versus the prior-year comp, channel-pricing discipline, and fixed-cost leverage relative to marketing and store-related expenses. Any evidence of lower logistics costs or a more favorable channel mix could support gross margin stability and, by extension, EBIT outperformance versus the $74.48 million benchmark.Channel mix, sell-through, and inventory
A constructive setup hinges on clean inventories both in DTC and at wholesale partners to support full-price sell-through. The prior quarter’s channel mix—60.37% wholesale and 39.61% DTC—provides context for how sensitive aggregate margins can be to even modest shifts in DTC penetration. In this quarter’s print, qualitative signals on sell-through quality, replenishment velocity, and markdown exposure at key partners will likely be used to triangulate outlook quality for the first half of 2026. If management indicates stable promotional intensity and robust repeat purchase behavior through owned channels, investors may infer higher confidence in margin durability even if volume growth decelerates seasonally. Conversely, signs of heavier discounting at partners could temper near-term gross margin expectations, placing more emphasis on operating cost control to maintain EBIT growth relative to the 26.40% year-over-year estimate.Pricing, product cadence, and category mix
Consistency in pricing architecture across core footwear franchises has been a recurring factor in maintaining full-price sell-through, and that remains relevant for the current quarter. A stable cadence of product refreshes can sustain consumer interest without requiring outsized promotional support, which would otherwise compress gross margin. The contribution of apparel and accessories, while smaller than footwear, can modestly enhance margins when sell-through aligns with store visuals and e-commerce presentation, thereby lifting units-per-transaction and conversion. For the upcoming result, commentary that points to strong uptake of recent introductions and balanced contribution across everyday performance and training silhouettes would bolster confidence that channel and product mix can keep gross margin near attractive levels. This is particularly pertinent as the Street benchmarks the implied adjusted EPS of $0.20 against the backdrop of last quarter’s $0.47, acknowledging seasonality while seeking evidence of year-over-year operating leverage.Geographic execution and operational cadence
Regional execution often determines the slope of growth in any given quarter, especially in the fourth quarter when promotions can vary across markets. While consensus does not break out geography in the figures presented, the overall revenue estimate implies that demand remains broad-based and not dependent on a narrow set of regions. Operational cadence—sourcing stability, freight reliability, and store staffing—feeds directly into conversion rates and the quality of full-price sales, particularly online where delivery timeliness can impact conversion. Any management color on lead times, inbound logistics, and inventory positioning by category can help investors judge whether the current quarter’s elevated year-over-year revenue growth translates to the same or better year-over-year EBIT growth than the 26.40% forecast. Where operational metrics remain stable, guidance for 2026 could carry greater weight in shaping the post-earnings reaction.Reconciling seasonality and year-over-year growth
The quarter-to-quarter step down from $794.40 million last quarter to the $723.68 million consensus for the current quarter is consistent with the company’s typical revenue cadence around year-end and the fourth quarter. Despite this seasonal pattern, the year-over-year growth in revenue, EBIT, and adjusted EPS is expected to remain firmly positive, demonstrating resilience in the top line and measured operating leverage. The last quarter’s net profit margin of 14.97% sets a high watermark for profitability into year-end; while that exact level is not implied for the fourth quarter, consensus still expects year-over-year improvement in EBIT and EPS. Investors will parse whether channel strategy and product mix can offset any seasonal uptick in marketing spend and store-operating expenses. If so, the company could exit the quarter with sufficient momentum to frame an encouraging 2026 outlook.Analyst Opinions
Among the institutional views published since January 1, 2026, the majority are bullish. Within this window, BTIG reiterated a Buy rating with a $70.00 price target, Telsey Advisory Group maintained a Buy rating with a $65.00 target, and Goldman Sachs upgraded the shares to Buy and raised its price target to $58.50. Williams Trading downgraded the stock to Hold earlier in January, leaving the balance at roughly 75% bullish versus 25% neutral/bearish among the sampled updates. Because the bullish voices form the clear majority, this section focuses on that stance.Analysts emphasizing the bullish case generally cite sustained revenue momentum into the fourth quarter and early 2026, supported by continued brand heat, disciplined channel execution, and measurable operating leverage. The consensus revenue estimate of $723.68 million, up 21.86% year over year, aligns with these views and underpins the outlook for EBIT of $74.48 million, up 26.40%, and adjusted EPS of $0.20, up 16.25%. BTIG’s positive stance highlights the company’s consistent ability to grow against tough footwear comps while protecting full-price sell-through, a dynamic that enables strong gross margin control. Telsey’s Buy rating and $65.00 target are anchored in the durability of demand through multi-channel distribution and the brand’s ability to generate repeat purchase behavior, translating into a supportive outlook for revenue and profitability as the company scales. Goldman Sachs’ upgrade to Buy with a $58.50 target adds a constructive view from a previously more neutral posture, implying improved confidence that the coming quarters can compound top-line growth while absorbing investment in stores, digital, and supply chain.
The analytical thread across these bullish opinions centers on the interplay between growth and margin quality. A channel mix that lifts DTC penetration tends to support gross margin sustainability, and analysts expect this to continue to contribute positively as the company calibrates inventory and promotions. On cost lines, the Street expects measured investment discipline to co-exist with growth initiatives, allowing for a manageable path from revenue to EBIT, consistent with the 26.40% year-over-year EBIT growth implied by consensus. Analysts also frame the leadership transition in the finance organization as a potential positive for operating rigor and financial communication, viewing the incoming CFO appointment as complementary to the company’s scale-up phase through 2026. While not every voice is unequivocally positive—evidenced by January’s Hold stance from Williams Trading—the preponderance of recent institutional commentary skews toward expectations of sustained revenue growth, solid margin execution, and operational cadence that can support ongoing earnings expansion.
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