On September 24, the news landscape served as the primary source of pressure, with the U.S. dollar index posting a particularly strong performance this week, touching a two-month high and directly weighing on dollar-denominated gold.
At the same time, the Nasdaq ended its winning streak and turned into a bearish pullback. The synchronized weakness in risk assets did not generate safe-haven buying for gold; instead, under expectations of tightening liquidity, a correlated pressure effect emerged.
Federal Reserve Governor Barr explicitly stated on Wednesday that "further policy adjustments may be needed," hinting at at least two more rate hikes, while Boston Fed President Collins also maintained a similarly hawkish stance.
S&P Global's U.S. PMI data came in stronger than expected at 58.4, further reinforcing October rate hike expectations. CME data showed that traders' bets on an October hike climbed rapidly from about 49% a week earlier to nearly 70%.
Gold's trading range shifted lower, with hawkish expectations suppressing rebound momentum. In early Asian trading on Thursday, spot gold consolidated weakly near $4,285, and the immediate impression from the chart was that the oscillation range had clearly moved down from previous levels.
The morning rebound high only reached the 4,303 level, forming a mild trading range with last night's pullback low of 4,273. On the technical front, if gold breaks upward, two resistance levels at 4,327 and 4,342 warrant attention; if it breaks downward, support tests at 4,253 and 4,235 should be watched.
Liu Mingcheng believes that gold's current performance shows behavior that is misleading bulls. Referring to last week's low of 4,235, for gold to truly turn a rebound into a reversal in the future, it is expected to revisit the 4,235 area once more to seek daily double-bottom support, after which further gains would be more stable. Short-term traders need to be wary of false breakouts within the range, and waiting for an effective breakout before positioning in the direction of the trend would be more prudent.
Gold Reference Strategy: Real-time quote at the 4,285 level. (Aggressive positioning: wait for a break below 4,273 to chase shorts, stop loss at 4,283, target 4,260–4,245.) 1. Go long on a pullback to the 4,361–4,255 zone, stop loss at 4,250, target 4,280–4,300, pending further breakout. 2. If gold rebounds first to 4,298, go short, stop loss at 4,305, target 4,285–4,273, and if broken below, look to 4,260. 3. Place pending short orders at 4,328 and 4,337, stop loss at 4,343, target 4,300–4,260. 4. Defensive pending order: place a long at 4,236, stop loss at 4,225, target 4,270–4,300–4,340.
The news backdrop presents a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On the bearish side, geopolitical risk premiums have rapidly faded recently — the Saudi East-West oil pipeline that was shut down after an attack has restarted, and Saudi crude export volumes have recovered. U.S.-Iran talks during the UN General Assembly progressed smoothly, with plans for another meeting, and the "supply disruption panic" previously priced into the market has clearly eased.
Additionally, the U.S. dollar index continued to strengthen this week, with better-than-expected U.S. economic data and hawkish Fed official comments keeping the dollar strong, adding extra pressure on dollar-denominated crude oil.
However, bullish factors have not disappeared. Global inventories remain at their lowest levels since 1990, and the drawdown in refined product inventories is forcing refineries to maintain high utilization rates, creating rigid procurement demand for crude oil and limiting downside space.
On the crude oil chart, the ultra-short cycle is undergoing a bottoming process. The 1-hour Bollinger Band's three tracks are converging, which means that once the range opens up, it will inevitably be accompanied by a clear directional move.
On the technical front, if there is a downward break below the 1-hour lower band at 94.1, attention should be paid to the support at yesterday's low of 92.3; if there is an upward break above the 1-hour upper band at 96.8, a trend-following rally is likely, testing the 4-hour upper band pressure point at 98.6.
The technical and news fronts resonate to point to a short-term bearish bias. The weekly chart has already shown two consecutive bearish candles, and the daily chart has not yet produced a Z-shaped reversal bottom signal. In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on shorting on rebounds, and waiting for a clear阶段性 bottom signal before gradually positioning long orders in batches would be more prudent.
Crude Oil Reference Strategy: Real-time quote at the 95.7 level. 1. Go short on a rebound to the 98.6–99.3 zone, stop loss at 100, target 96.2–94.5. 2. Go long on a pullback to the 94.2–93.7 zone, stop loss at 93.2, target 96.5–98.5. 3. Place pending long orders at 90.7 and 90.1, stop loss at 89.4, target 93–96.2.
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