On June 16th, following the previous trading day Monday (June 15th), international gold opened higher and strengthened, forming an inverted hammer candlestick to close in positive territory. This was driven by news of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, with a text expected to be signed on Friday, which would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This prompted the higher open and strength, although a subsequent pullback occurred due to profit-taking against resistance and Israel's firm stance against troop withdrawal.
This also hints at expectations for a corrective pullback to fill the gap within the week. Resistance will be watched at the middle Bollinger Band and the 200-day moving average, while support will be monitored for renewed bullish opportunities after the gap is filled.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session over $60 higher at $4,275.60 per ounce, initially hitting an intraday low of $4,259.98 before rebounding. The rally extended into the US session around 10 PM, recording an intraday high of $4,369.18, where it encountered resistance and pulled back. It closed the session at $4,308.89. Compared to last Friday's close of $4,213.70, the daily range was $155.48, with a gain of $95.19 or 2.26%.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, June 16th, international gold opened with initial strength, supported by buying interest. However, intraday oil prices, while maintaining low levels, show signs of stabilizing with a potential rebound bias. The US Dollar Index is also expected to extend its recovery momentum from yesterday, which could dampen gold's rebound strength. Intraday attention will be on whether the dollar can break through the resistance of the 10-day moving average.
Overall, while oil prices may be bottoming or rebounding in the short term, and the US Dollar Index is anticipated to have rebound needs, these factors are likely to limit gold's upward momentum, favoring a corrective move to fill the gap. However, the short-term trend for oil remains weak, with a medium-term outlook within a wide consolidation range and no clear long-term bullish drivers. Consequently, inflationary pressures are expected to ease, and the dollar's longer-term prospects also appear weak. Therefore, for gold, after filling the gap or upon any renewed decline, it may still present an opportunity to enter long positions.
On the fundamental front, Israel remains unconstrained by clauses related to Lebanon and has firmly stated it will not withdraw troops. Former US President Trump indicated he may or may not attend the agreement signing on the 19th. Even if signed, a 60-day negotiation period on nuclear issues would follow. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, also stated that the memorandum does not imply trust in the "enemy," and final agreement negotiations will occur within 60 days, with Iran prepared to take its own measures if the other side violates the terms. Thus, until a final outcome is settled, gold's strength is still viewed primarily as a phase of corrective rebound.
Nevertheless, although peace talks carry risks of reversal, the final outcome still leans towards an agreement. Furthermore, Trump stated the strait would fully reopen on Friday. Iranian media reported that the US has begun lifting its maritime blockade, with several Iranian vessels passing smoothly through the previously blocked area. Even if a signing does not occur on Friday, subsequent market action would likely involve consolidation and adjustment, which could also present entry opportunities for a one-to-two-year bullish view.
Technically, on the monthly chart, although gold has rebounded, it has not yet clearly formed a hammer candlestick nor reclaimed the $4,500 level. Overall, it continues to trade below the resistance of the 5- and 10-month moving averages and the ascending trendline. The accompanying indicator, the Stochastic Oscillator, maintains a bearish signal, and the MACD is poised to form a bearish crossover, indicating bears still hold the advantage. This suggests potential for a decline towards the monthly Bollinger Band middle support around $3,800, or even the 30-month moving average support near $3,300.
Therefore, before a rebound and close above $4,500, there remains an expectation for further downward adjustment.
On the weekly chart, last week's price action formed a bottoming and rebounding bullish pattern. Compared to the two previous similar instances, this suggests the potential for a phased rebound over the coming weeks, with targets at $4,500 or $4,700. However, it currently faces resistance from a trendline pressure; a break above this resistance is needed for further strength. If prices fall again and close below the support of the 60-week moving average, a further decline towards $3,800 or $3,600 could follow.
On the daily chart, gold is currently in a rebound phase, but Monday's gap higher is expected to be filled. Upside also faces strong pressure from the 200-day and 60-day moving averages, keeping the broader trend outlook weak. However, short-term bearish momentum has weakened, and the bias for the week leans more towards consolidation or strength. Support is watched at the short-term 5- and 10-day moving averages for potential long entries, while resistance at the middle Bollinger Band and the 200-day moving average could be considered for shorts.
Intraday specific real-time trading guidance should be based on actual account information.
Preliminary intraday operational reference points are as follows; specific entry and exit points should follow actual account notifications:
Gold: Support watched near $4,290 or $4,220; Resistance watched near $4,395 or $4,435.
Silver: Support watched near $69.00 or $68.00; Resistance watched near $71.70 or $73.25.
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