On April 16, we noted on Wednesday that former President Trump's statement indicating the war with Iran had ended and potential renewed negotiations within two days led to a decline in oil prices. This alleviated inflation concerns and reduced market expectations for the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period, thereby supporting a rebound in gold prices. Operationally, it was suggested to watch for support at $4,800, followed by $4,760, with resistance expected at $4,870 and $4,900. A further breakthrough could target $5,000.
Looking at subsequent trading, during the Asian session on Wednesday, gold reached a new monthly high of $4,871 before experiencing a fluctuating decline. After the European market opened, prices remained under pressure, dropping to stabilize at $4,786. During the U.S. session, gold rebounded to $4,830 but encountered resistance, falling back to find support again at $4,787. Towards the close, prices traded under pressure and retreated once more to stabilize at $4,787. Overall, after encountering resistance at higher levels, gold maintained a high consolidation pattern with limited declines, indicating potential for further upward movement.
Analysis from Wolfinance suggests that while the U.S.-Iran talks broke down over the weekend, leading to a spike in oil prices and a gap-down opening for gold at the start of the week, both sides signaled a willingness to continue dialogue, allowing gold to stabilize and rebound quickly. Subsequently, Trump's remarks about the war with Iran being over and possible renewed negotiations within two days pushed international oil prices to a near one-month low, while the U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since March, providing further support for gold to reach a new monthly high. However, factors such as the U.S. not agreeing to extend the ceasefire agreement, ongoing conflict between Lebanon and Israel, and uncertainty surrounding renewed negotiations are limiting gold's rebound until the situation becomes clearer.
On the daily chart, gold encountered resistance after rising on Wednesday but saw limited pullbacks, maintaining a high consolidation pattern with opportunities to test higher levels. Key support levels to watch include Wednesday's low of $4,786, where prices stabilized multiple times after pullbacks, coinciding with the 5-day moving average. Further support is seen near Tuesday's low around $4,745, which is also near Monday's high. Resistance levels are observed near Wednesday's high around $4,870, followed by the psychological $4,900 level. A sustained break above could open the path towards $5,000. The 5-day MA and MACD indicators show a bullish crossover, while the KDJ indicator also remains bullish, though the RSI has turned down from a bullish crossover, suggesting short-term technical conditions indicate a need for a rebound.
Intraday outlook for gold: Easing tensions in the Middle East and pressured oil prices are alleviating inflation concerns, supporting gold's rebound. A range-trading approach is recommended, with support monitored at $4,786 and $4,745, and resistance at $4,870 and $4,900. A decisive break higher could target $5,000.
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