The "2026 Finance Annual Conference: Forecasts & Strategies" and "2025 Global Wealth Management Forum" were held in Beijing from December 18 to 20, 2025. Marshall Mills, IMF Chief Representative in China, announced an upward revision of China's economic growth forecast to 5% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, based on the IMF's annual economic health check. This adjustment reflects China's strong export performance and effective fiscal stimulus measures, with the country contributing about 30% to global growth while creating favorable conditions to address domestic challenges.
Regarding China's economic development path, Marshall Mills proposed three key recommendations aligned with the consumption-boosting policy direction in China's 15th Five-Year Plan:
1. Addressing domestic imbalances and deflationary pressures through more expansionary macroeconomic policies. Fiscal measures should prioritize strengthening social safety nets to boost consumer confidence, alongside accelerating household registration reforms. These steps could raise consumption by 3 percentage points of GDP in the medium term. Simultaneously, reducing public investment and industrial policies targeting specific firms/sectors would allow market-driven resource allocation, improving productivity and fiscal efficiency.
2. Enhancing medium-term growth potential via structural reforms. Suggestions include reducing regulatory burdens, lowering domestic trade barriers (particularly in services) to ensure fair competition, leveraging digital infrastructure for AI benefits while mitigating labor market disruptions and new financial risks.
3. Resolving high debt levels through sustainable local government debt restructuring, complemented by stronger financial sector supervision, fiscal transparency reforms, and discipline to reinforce risk management.
Mills emphasized that substantial progress in these three priority areas could potentially increase China's GDP by an additional 2.5% by 2030, generating 18 million jobs while easing inflation pressures and improving internal/external economic balance for more sustainable growth.
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