A research report from Guotai Haitong indicates that the U.S.-Iran conflict has driven up global oil prices. In this oil price cycle, the economic advantages of HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs have expanded, which is expected to boost their penetration in high oil-price regions and create export opportunities for independent Chinese brands. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's passenger vehicle exports from January to February 2026 increased by 53.3% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle exports surged by approximately 110%. With high global oil prices in March providing a catalyst, full-year NEV export forecasts are likely to be revised upward. The report recommends core domestic brands with strong overseas potential, including Geely Auto, SAIC Motor, BYD Company, XPeng, and Leapmotor. Key points from Guotai Haitong are as follows:
On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran. Iran subsequently announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, essentially halting crude oil exports from the Gulf and causing a sharp rise in global crude prices. Historical oil price increases have previously spurred opportunities in the passenger vehicle industry. According to IEA estimates, global crude supply in March could decrease by 8 million barrels per day (18.5% of February's OPEC+ daily production), far exceeding the demand reduction of 1 million barrels per day. As of March 23, the spot price of Brent crude was up 54.1% compared to the February average. Consequently, global gasoline spot prices rose by 24.3% and 33.7% in the first two weeks of March, respectively. In the EU, the tax-exclusive price of 95 RON unleaded gasoline increased by 12.4% and 6.6% over the past two weeks, while the tax-inclusive price rose by 6.6% and 3.6%. In Malaysia, 95 RON gasoline prices increased by 3.1% and 22.5%.
Looking back historically, the first oil crisis in 1973 saw crude prices rise nearly fourfold, leading to the rapid penetration of more fuel-efficient and lighter Japanese brands like Toyota and Honda in the U.S., displacing popular large-displacement muscle cars. During the second oil crisis from 1978 to 1980, crude prices surged over 200%, and the market share of Japanese cars in the U.S. increased from 12% to 21%. The Gulf War in 1990 triggered the third oil crisis, and between 2000 and 2008, factors such as strong oil demand, Middle East instability, and a weak U.S. dollar drove cumulative oil price increases of fourfold. Toyota launched the world's first mass-produced hybrid passenger vehicle, the Prius, in 1997, entered the U.S. and European markets in 2000, and introduced a second-generation model in 2003 with fuel consumption of only 2.82 liters per 100 km. Leveraging this fuel efficiency advantage, Toyota's global cumulative hybrid sales reached milestones of 1 million, 2 million, and 3 million units in May 2007, September 2009, and February 2011, respectively, marking the "Toyota moment."
The current oil price surge highlights the cost-effectiveness of NEVs, with significant room for increased penetration overseas. For example, in EU countries, the fuel cost for gasoline vehicles consuming 5.5 to 8.5 liters per 100 km has increased by an average of €115 to €178 per 10,000 km compared to February. Comparing energy costs for similar-class SUV models—the Honda Breeze 240TURBO, Breeze Hybrid, BYD Song Pro DM-i, and BYD Sea Lion 05 EV—using latest European average oil prices and public fast-charging rates, the refueling/charging costs per 10,000 km are approximately €1,344, €1,009, €993, and €686, respectively. This results in cost ratios of 1.3, 1.4, and 2.0 for gasoline vehicles versus HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. According to the China Passenger Car Association, the global NEV penetration rate reached 23.6% by 2025. Penetration rates in Europe, North America (excluding the U.S.), Asia (excluding Japan and South Korea), and the Southern Hemisphere were 23.4%, 8.5%, 6.9%, and 4.7%, respectively. The market share of Chinese independent brand NEVs in these regions was 12.2%, 6.1%, 44.0%, and 76.8%, accounting for 2.9%, 0.5%, 3.0%, and 3.6% of local passenger vehicle sales, indicating substantial room for growth.
Risks include changes in the geopolitical landscape and shifts in overseas NEV and import policies.
Comments