On July 3rd, the three major A-share indices opened with mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.06%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.16%.
In terms of sector performance, the precious metals sector showed strength at the open. Conversely, sectors such as memory chips, semiconductors, and cultural media were among the leading decliners.
Brokerage Views on the Market Outlook
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited remains firmly optimistic about the core leading role of technology stocks, represented by AI, in the market trends for the second half of the year. The brokerage suggests that the K-shaped divergence pattern, where new growth drivers rise while old ones decline, may see a phase of narrowing after the gap widens in the near future. The upward trend for tech stocks has not fundamentally changed.
Analyst Lin Yang believes that as technology continues to iterate and industrial investment is gradually released, the technology sector may experience periodic adjustments. Funds could temporarily flow into non-tech sectors at lower valuations, promoting a short-term convergence of the K-shaped divergence gap. However, from a medium-cycle perspective, such convergence represents only a minor, temporary correction. A true rebalancing of the divergence gap might require waiting until about two years later when the momentum of the current technology investment cycle is gradually exhausted. By then, the growth rate of upstream AI investment is expected to peak, the transformation of AI across various industries will enter a full-scale implementation phase, the widespread sharing of AI dividends will drive restorative economic growth, new market drivers will gradually transform into conventional growth momentum, the economic cycle will enter a steady growth range, and the cyclical characteristics of the K-shaped divergence will gradually weaken.
Founder Securities Co.,Ltd. posits that global technology themes are experiencing heightened volatility. Fluctuations in AI hardware and semiconductors have notably amplified, and funds have not completely shifted from technology to low-valuation defensive sectors. The brokerage expects a weak, corrective recovery for the major indices in the short term. A clear style shift is likely to materialize only after the release of mid-year financial reports, with a focus on four sectors showing high certainty of strong mid-year performance growth. In terms of allocation, investment opportunities in new quality productive forces and pro-cyclical directions should be monitored.
Oriental Securities suggests that the downside for stock indices is limited in the short term, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue testing the area near the 5-day moving average next week. The brokerage notes that as July begins, the market has returned to a window of博弈 centered on corporate earnings. Yesterday, several A-share companies with strong earnings forecasts saw their stock prices surge significantly, indicating strong investor preference for stocks with solid performance backing. Conversely, high-priced stocks driven purely by concepts but lacking an earnings foundation face correction pressure, which investors should avoid. From a technical perspective, yesterday's low for the Shanghai Composite Index was precisely near the rising trendline that started from the "9.24"行情 and was also situated in the middle of the descending channel following the pullback from the 4258 high. Therefore, short-term downside appears limited, with an expectation to challenge the 5-day moving average area again next week.
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