Financial Intelligence Terminal reports that Everbright Securities Company Limited has released a research report stating that the intensity and sustainability of the industry's "anti-involution" efforts in 2026 are expected to exceed market forecasts. This has effectively eased competitive pressure within the sector, leading to a gradual recovery in industry pricing levels and paving the way for a sustained improvement in profitability. Amid a slowdown in industry growth driven by high operational costs for e-commerce and a warm winter, the firm maintains a positive outlook on leading express delivery companies that are continuously optimizing their business structures, building differentiated competitive moats, and experiencing rapid growth in their overseas operations.
Key Insights from Everbright Securities are as follows:
June Industry Volume Growth Rose Steadily Year-on-Year, with E-commerce Express Delivery Seeing Notable Growth
1) For the entire industry: In June 2026, the total volume of parcels handled by express delivery companies nationwide reached 17.51 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%. For the first half of 2026 (January to June), the total volume was 100.38 billion items, up 5.0% year-on-year. The report suggests that online e-commerce consumption remains active, providing a solid foundation for volume growth. This, combined with factors such as the "national subsidy" policy driving stable consumer market performance and the continued expansion of rural and other lower-tier markets, has led to a steady upward trend in the industry's parcel volume growth rate.
2) E-commerce express delivery: The month-on-month change in parcel volume growth rates for individual companies from May to June was not significant. Specifically, YTO Express's growth rate decreased from +10.60% in May to +8.60% in June, Yunda's rate moved from -0.52% to -0.05%, and STO Express's rate slightly declined from +18.77% to +18.59%.
3) Direct-operated express delivery: SF Express's business volume growth rate fell from -4.20% to -4.86% month-on-month.
Industry Unit Prices Grew Steadily, with the "Anti-Involution" in Express Delivery Exceeding Expectations in Both Intensity and Sustainability
1) For the entire industry: In June 2026, express delivery industry revenue increased by 7.7% year-on-year, while the revenue per parcel rose by 3.76% year-on-year. The report identifies two key drivers for this sustained positive price growth: first, the "anti-involution" initiatives have a strong and persistent boosting effect; second, the fierce price competition in the same period last year had already pushed prices to very low levels, creating a low base for this year's consistent year-on-year increase in unit prices.
2) E-commerce express delivery: The year-on-year changes in revenue per parcel for June 2026 were -1.90% for YTO Express, +10.47% for Yunda, and +6.03% for STO Express. For the January to June period, the changes were -0.95% for YTO, +9.54% for Yunda, and +12.15% for STO.
3) Direct-operated express delivery: SF Express's revenue per parcel in June increased by 5.41% year-on-year, and for the January to June period, it grew by 3.30% year-on-year. SF's business volume structure continues to improve, its unit price has turned positive from negative year-on-year, and the effects of its "Benefit Enhancement Plan" are gradually becoming apparent.
Industry Concentration Eased Slightly, with Market Shares of Leading Companies in Q2 2026 Remaining Relatively Stable
From early 2022 to the end of 2024, due to relatively mild price competition under policy supervision, the concentration of market share among leading companies progressed slowly.
1) For the entire industry: The CR8 concentration ratio for the express delivery industry in the first half of 2026 was 87.0, a year-on-year increase of 0.1. Since January 2025, the CR8 has maintained a positive year-on-year growth trend, indicating a continuous increase in market share for leading firms.
2) E-commerce express delivery: The Q2 2026 market shares (calculated by parcel volume) for YTO Express, Yunda, STO Express, and J&T Express were 16.4%, 12.4%, 14.6%, and 11.8%, respectively. Compared to Q1 2026, these figures changed by +0.39 pct, +0.47 pct, +0.63 pct, and +0.47 pct. The Q2 2026 market shares of leading express delivery companies were relatively stable quarter-on-quarter. In November and December 2025, STO Express merged with Daniao Logistics. As a leading provider of domestic premium express and reverse logistics services, this merger directly expanded STO's business scope.
3) Direct-operated express delivery: SF Express's Q2 2026 market share reached 7.79%, a quarter-on-quarter change of +0.01 pct from Q1 2026.
Risk Analysis
Economic fluctuations, changes in industry policies, irrational competition, oil price volatility, etc.
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