Abstract
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd will report fiscal quarter results on January 29, 2026 Pre-Market; the preview below compiles current-quarter forecasts, last-quarter performance, and the dominant analyst views between July 22, 2025 and January 22, 2026.
Market Forecast
For the current fiscal quarter, forecasts indicate total revenue of USD 11.50 billion with an estimated year-over-year increase of 6.05%, EBIT of USD 1.06 billion with an estimated year-over-year increase of 174.79%, and no published consensus for adjusted EPS; last quarter’s net profit margin and gross margin are applied for contextual benchmarking. Forecast commentary highlights steady topline supported by Gastroenterology and Plasma-Derived Therapies Immunology, with operating profit expected to rebound from prior-period one-offs. The most promising segment remains Gastroenterology, which generated USD 6.93 billion last quarter; its expansion is expected to continue on sustained demand across core brands, though a formal year-over-year rate was not disclosed.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior reported fiscal quarter, Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd recorded revenue of USD 11.07 billion, a gross profit margin of 65.85%, a GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD -11.80 billion, a net profit margin of -1.06%, and no disclosed adjusted EPS in the dataset, while year-over-year revenue growth was -8.39%. A notable highlight was EBIT of USD 1.85 billion, which exceeded the period’s consensus and marked double-digit year-over-year growth, reflecting operating resilience despite revenue softness. Main business contributions were led by Gastroenterology at USD 6.93 billion, Plasma-Derived Therapies Immunology at USD 5.17 billion, Rare Diseases at USD 3.81 billion, Oncology at USD 2.88 billion, Neuroscience at USD 2.06 billion, Vaccines at USD 0.32 billion, and Other at USD 1.03 billion; year-over-year changes were not provided.
Current Quarter Outlook
Gastroenterology (Core Franchise)
Gastroenterology is the largest revenue contributor and a pivotal driver of quarterly momentum. The segment delivered USD 6.93 billion last quarter, anchoring the company’s topline mix and providing margin stability consistent with the consolidated gross profit margin of 65.85%. For the quarter to be reported, consensus revenue growth of 6.05% implies tailwinds from persistent demand in key gastrointestinal therapies. Management’s operating guidance, reflected in the forecasted EBIT improvement to USD 1.06 billion, suggests the franchise’s pricing and mix could offset category-level competition and lifecycle dynamics. As the consolidated net profit margin last quarter was -1.06% due to below-the-line items, the current quarter’s earnings trajectory will rely on Gastroenterology sustaining high contribution margin and limited rebates or inventory adjustments, which should help normalize profitability.
Plasma-Derived Therapies Immunology (Scale and Supply Normalization)
The Plasma-Derived Therapies Immunology segment posted USD 5.17 billion last quarter, indicating strong scale relative to total revenue. In the current quarter, operating forecasts imply production and supply normalization, supporting consolidated EBIT endurance despite the year-over-year revenue swing observed last period. The segment is sensitive to donor supply, fractionation throughput, and product mix, which can influence margin progression quarter to quarter. Given forecast revenue growth of 6.05% and EBIT growth of 174.79%, incremental operating leverage from PD-T immunology can be a key lever, particularly if logistics and yield remain balanced and pricing actions hold. Any variation in input availability or regional demand shifts could affect contribution margins, which remains a watch point for consensus models.
Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter
Earnings quality and normalization of below-the-line items will likely be central to equity reaction, following last quarter’s reported GAAP net loss despite solid EBIT. Investors appear focused on whether operating momentum translates to net income and adjusted EPS reliability, though adjusted EPS forecasts were not available in the dataset. Segment mix, especially Gastroenterology’s margin profile and PD-T immunology’s operating leverage, may determine the headline gross margin relative to last quarter’s 65.85%. Finally, revenue cadence at USD 11.50 billion and the material year-over-year EBIT rebound to USD 1.06 billion could shape views on the sustainability of mid-single-digit topline growth and the pathway to margin repair through fiscal-year end.
Analyst Opinions
Among institutional commentary surveyed between July 22, 2025 and January 22, 2026, the prevailing stance is constructive rather than bearish, with a majority anticipating sequential operating normalization and a rebound in profitability. Analysts point to the forecasted EBIT growth of 174.79% as evidence of operating recovery following one-offs in the prior period, while the 6.05% projected revenue growth is seen as consistent with the company’s main franchises. Commentary emphasizes Gastroenterology as the principal driver with PD-T immunology as a supportive pillar for operating leverage, aligning with expectations for stable gross margin context relative to the previously reported 65.85%. The majority view suggests the near-term equity narrative hinges on converting operating performance into cleaner bottom-line results and maintaining disciplined expense control, setting the stage for guidance updates and potential consensus revisions after January 29, 2026.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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