Analysis of Gold Price Movement: On April 16, gold initially rose, testing resistance near 4870 due to market expectations regarding the resumption of US-Iran negotiations. However, the price subsequently entered a phase of sustained oscillatory decline. During the European and American trading sessions, it retreated three times to the vicinity of 4780, ultimately closing lower for the day, while temporarily holding above the support of the 5-day moving average. From a daily chart perspective, the market in the first half of the week was clearly dominated by news developments and persistent US dollar weakness, leading to a market reaction that was somewhat excessive at times, pushing the gold price back above the moving average band. However, yesterday's price action clearly revealed underlying weakness, reflecting not only a lack of confidence among bulls and insufficient follow-through momentum from a technical standpoint but also indicating that market sentiment is gradually returning to rationality amidst disruptive, unpredictable news flows. This cautious posture is highly likely to persist today. The true directional breakout for the market later will still need to be judged by closely following developments in news and the trajectory of the US dollar.
Currently, the gold price is temporarily holding above the daily moving average band. Intraday focus remains on testing support near the 5-day MA at 4790 and the 10-day MA at 4750. A break below these levels, resulting in a fall back under the moving average band, would signal the end of this short-term rebound trend, with the market likely re-entering a downward channel. This could see prices decline further towards the 20-day MA around 4640, or even lower. Of course, such a weakening scenario would similarly require fundamental support, such as diminished expectations for US-Iran talks or a renewed escalation and deterioration of the Middle East situation, which would boost the US dollar and consequently pressure gold. On the upside, intraday attention continues to focus on short-term resistance near 4850-4860. A firm break above this zone could lead to a retest of the upper boundary of the range near 4930. However, this potential for upward movement is contingent upon the market holding positive expectations for a successful outcome in the US-Iran negotiations.
From an hourly chart perspective, although gold is oscillating at high levels, the conditions for a continued strong advance are not fully present. If short-term momentum is slightly stronger, the price may maintain a high-level consolidation; if weaker, a reversal and decline could occur at any time. The intraday view should initially be treated with a range-trading mindset, with subsequent adjustments made flexibly based on news flow and US dollar movements. On the hourly chart, key resistance is focused in the 4850-4870 zone, while support is watched in the 4800-4790 area. The technical picture still leans towards a corrective consolidation. A break below 4790 could see further declines towards the 4750-4740 area for a retest.
Given the current high-level oscillation in gold prices, contradictory and volatile technical trends, and the ongoing uncertainty inherent in news developments, intraday strategy should involve ultra-short-term trading within the 4930–4850/60–4790–4750/40 range, buying on dips and selling on rallies. From a technical directional bias, there might be a slight preference for selecting highs for short positions, but it is crucial to remain highly vigilant throughout for the risk of sharp volatility triggered by unexpected news.
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