The A-share market has entered a period of intensive earnings forecast disclosures. Data shows that as of midday January 29th, 1,657 listed companies have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts. Among them, benefiting from the global wave of AI infrastructure construction and the price hike cycle of memory chips, the semiconductor industry has delivered exceptionally strong results. Key segments, especially GPUs, advanced packaging, and memory, have experienced a significant boost in market sentiment. So far, a total of 93 semiconductor companies have released their earnings forecasts. Of these, 61 companies project a net profit attributable to shareholders growth exceeding 20%, accounting for over 60% of the total, while 21 companies forecast a net profit increase of over 100%. Companies like Montage Technology Co.,Ltd. and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China expect their net profit attributable to shareholders to surpass 2 billion yuan. Notably, since the beginning of the year, the domestic semiconductor industry has seen a concentrated release of price hike signals, further fueling the secondary market rally. A price adjustment notice from China Micro Semiconductor stated that, due to the severe supply-demand situation and significant cost pressures, after careful consideration, it has decided to adjust prices for products including MCUs and Norflash effective immediately, with increases ranging from 15% to 50%. Goke Microelectronics also issued a price hike letter to customers, announcing price increases starting in January: 40% for KGD (Known Good Die) products with 512Mb, 60% for 1Gb KGD, and 80% for 2Gb KGD. According to data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), global semiconductor sales are expected to grow 11% year-on-year in 2025 to a record high of $700.9 billion, and are projected to increase by 9% in 2026 to $760.7 billion.
Memory chips are leading the performance growth. Judging by the projected profit growth rates, among the 93 semiconductor companies that have disclosed forecasts, three expect net profit attributable to shareholders to surge by more than 500%. The highest increase belongs to Sai Microelectronics, which expects a 2025 net profit of 1.414 billion to 1.504 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 170 million yuan in the same period last year, representing a staggering growth of 932% to 985%. However, Sai Microelectronics' profit growth primarily stemmed from the sale of its controlling stake in its former wholly-owned subsidiary, Silex Microsystems AB. In 2025, the company's net profit after deducting non-recurring losses was a loss of 303 million to 391 million yuan, with the loss widening further from 191 million yuan the previous year. After excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the title of "forecasted growth champion" goes to Zhenratech, which specializes in terminal RF front-end chips, high-density packaged microwave modules, and microsystems. Influenced by the domestic special-purpose industry cycle, downstream customer demand for special-purpose integrated circuits has increased. Simultaneously, the company actively seized market opportunities in the satellite communication sector. Zhenratech expects its 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 123 million and 145 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 529.64% to 642.26%. Its projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is between 104 million and 123 million yuan, an increase of 3678.27% to 4332.00% year-on-year. Looking at the overall performance of the semiconductor industry, companies in sub-sectors directly related to AI have shown the most outstanding results. Their growth is mainly driven by robust downstream demand and a cyclical recovery in product prices. The memory chip industry is the most typical example, becoming a "performance frontrunner" due to rebounding product prices and strong downstream AI demand. According to a recent report by market research firm Counterpoint Research, the memory market has entered a "super cycle" phase, with current conditions even surpassing the historical peak of 2018. Meanwhile, supplier pricing power has reached an all-time high. Memory prices are expected to rise another 40% to 50% in Q1 2026, followed by a further approximately 20% increase in Q2 2026. Many memory chip companies are also experiencing "dual highs" in both stock price and performance. For instance, industry leader Biwin Storage projects both revenue and net profit to hit record highs in 2025, with expected revenue between 10 billion and 12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.36% to 79.23%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 850 million and 1 billion yuan, surging 427.19% to 520.22% year-on-year. Biwin Storage attributed the performance growth to stabilizing and rising memory prices, the gradual delivery of key projects, maintaining a high growth trend in emerging AI edge-side fields, and a gradual recovery in sales revenue and gross margin. Montage Technology Co.,Ltd. expects its 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 2.15 billion and 2.35 billion yuan, an increase of 52.29% to 66.46% year-on-year. The company explained that the significant earnings growth benefits from the AI industry trend, strong market demand, and a notable increase in shipments of its interconnect chips. Deming Li also expects to achieve 2025 operating revenue between 10.3 billion and 11.3 billion yuan, up 115.82% to 136.77% year-on-year. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is between 650 million and 800 million yuan, an increase of 85.42% to 128.21% year-on-year.
GPU companies significantly reduce losses. Beyond the memory chip sector, driven by the sustained high demand for global AI computing power and the acceleration of domestic substitution, domestic GPU, semiconductor equipment, and packaging and testing companies are also demonstrating high growth trends. Among them, domestic CPU companies, being at a critical stage of breaking into high-end sectors, are showing positive signals of "high revenue growth and reduced losses." A typical example is the newly listed domestic GPU chip company Moore Threads. Its 2025 revenue is projected to be between 1.45 billion and 1.52 billion yuan, an increase of 230.70% to 246.67% compared to 2024. The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for 2025 is a loss of 1.04 billion to 1.15 billion yuan, representing a narrowing of the loss by 29.59% to 36.32% compared to the same period last year. Moore Threads stated that the performance growth is primarily based on the mass production of its flagship product, the MTT S5000, whose computing efficiency in AI clusters has reached internationally advanced levels, benefiting from the strong demand for high-performance GPUs in the AI industry. Muxi Co., Ltd. also expects to achieve 2025 operating revenue between 1.6 billion and 1.7 billion yuan, up 115.32% to 128.78% from 743 million yuan the previous year. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is a loss of 650 million to 798 million yuan, narrowing the loss by 43.36% to 53.86% compared to the loss of 1.409 billion yuan a year earlier. Loongson Technology expects annual revenue of 635 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -449 million yuan. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is approximately -503 million yuan, representing a year-on-year reduction in loss of about 24% to 28%. Furthermore, the semiconductor equipment sector, acting as the "pickaxe sellers" of the industrial chain, has seen substantial earnings growth benefiting from the expansion of domestic wafer fabs and R&D in advanced processes. Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc. China expects operating revenue of approximately 12.385 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 36.62%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses attributable to parent company owners is projected to be between 1.5 billion and 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 112 million to 212 million yuan from the same period last year, up approximately 8.06% to 15.26% year-on-year. Xinqi Microelectronics expects a 2025 net profit between 275 million and 295 million yuan, an increase of 71.13% to 83.58% year-on-year. The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is between 264 million and 284 million yuan, up 77.7% to 91.16% year-on-year. Additionally, the domestic packaging and testing industry has also achieved solid performance by leveraging advanced packaging technologies and aligning with the AI chip supply chain. For example, leading packaging and testing company Tongfu Microelectronics released its 2025 performance forecast, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between 1.1 billion and 1.35 billion yuan, an increase of 62.34% to 99.24% year-on-year. The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is between 770 million and 970 million yuan, an increase of 23.98% to 56.18% compared to the previous year.
Notably, as the semiconductor industry enters a period of concentrated earnings realization, many investors have already positioned themselves in this sector ahead of time. Since last year, "super individual investor" Zhang Jianping has been continuously increasing his stake in Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited. As of the third quarter of 2025, Zhang held 6.4065 million shares, making him the fifth largest circulating shareholder of Cambricon, an increase of 1.0678 million shares from the end of 2024, with a corresponding end-period reference market value of approximately 8.489 billion yuan. Another "super individual investor," Ge Huidong, has chosen to heavily invest in Gigadevice Semiconductor Inc. As of the end of Q3 2025, Ge held 17.0267 million shares of Gigadevice, making him its third-largest circulating shareholder, with a corresponding end-period reference market value of 3.632 billion yuan. Additionally, Ge Huidong also holds a significant position in liquid cooling company Shuguang Shuchuang, holding 2.4164 million shares as of the end of Q3 2025, with a corresponding reference market value of 218 million yuan. Recently, various major funds have also been increasing their investments in semiconductor companies, particularly leveraged funds, which continue to flow into this sector. Data shows that since the beginning of the year, leveraged funds have held positions in 175 semiconductor companies, with 119 of them receiving increased positions (net financing purchases), accounting for over 70%. Among them, Biwin Storage received the largest increase from leveraged funds. It has accumulated a net financing purchase of 1.076 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with financing purchases during this period reaching as high as 13.377 billion yuan. Furthermore, Montage Technology Co.,Ltd., Deming Li, and Hygon Information Technology Co.,Ltd. received increased leveraged fund positions of 962 million yuan, 752 million yuan, and 702 million yuan, respectively. As of January 29th, two semiconductor companies have margin trading balances exceeding 10 billion yuan: Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, with balances of 15.44 billion yuan and 12.89 billion yuan, respectively.
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