This week, global financial market attention is once again zeroed in on signals from the Federal Reserve. The upcoming release of the FOMC meeting minutes arrives just as gold prices have touched new historic peaks, positioning the minutes as a crucial variable that could sway short-term sentiment and the sustainability of the current trend. Against a backdrop of receding inflation, a weakening labor market, and intensifying policy disagreements, markets are attempting to decipher from the minutiae of the minutes whether the Fed's current "wait-and-see stance" signals the approaching end of the rate-cutting cycle or preserves room for further easing.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the US economy is exhibiting clear late-cycle characteristics. Inflation has cooled significantly from mid-year levels but has not yet fully returned to the Fed's 2% target range. Core PCE remains around 2.8%, and November's CPI came in at approximately 2.7% year-on-year, indicating that the disinflation process is underway. However, the persistence of services inflation continues, prompting policymakers to remain cautious about prematurely loosening financial conditions. Concurrently, signs of cooling in the labor market are becoming more evident; the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in November, a four-year high, while non-farm payrolls added only about 64,000 jobs, reflecting a sustained slowdown in hiring momentum. Although third-quarter GDP registered a high growth rate of 4.3%, widespread expectations are for fourth-quarter economic growth to normalize, with growth momentum likely moderating as cost-of-living pressures ease and fiscal stimuli subside.
Within this context, the Federal Reserve has already implemented three consecutive interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%. However, during the December meeting, despite cutting rates by another 25 basis points, the Fed simultaneously signaled a phased slowdown in the pace of easing. The core significance of these meeting minutes lies in revealing whether this "pause" is a cautious response to inflation risks or merely an effort to retain policy flexibility should data weaken further. Notably, the December meeting saw three dissenting votes, a rare occurrence in recent years: some officials argued that inflation is not yet sufficiently stable and advocated against further easing, while others argued for a larger rate cut to cushion the downward pressure on employment. This pronounced divergence inherently amplifies policy uncertainty, which itself is a key pillar supporting the medium to long-term bullish thesis for gold.
From a technical structure standpoint, gold remains firmly within a clear medium-term uptrend. Charts indicate that since November, the gold price has steadily advanced along a rising trendline. The prior downtrend line has been decisively broken and has now transformed into a medium-term structural support level, confirming a shift from consolidation to a unilateral upward trend. Recent sharp pullbacks following a rapid price surge have not broken this ascending trendline, suggesting selling pressure stems more from profit-taking at elevated levels rather than a trend reversal. The market is currently engaged in a tussle around a key support zone.
In terms of key price levels, the 4,328–4,305 area constitutes the first significant support zone. This range coincides with the previous consolidation platform and the rising trendline, giving it strong technical significance. A breach of this zone could see the gold price retreat further to test a secondary support area around 4,230. On the upside, the resistance zone around 4,460–4,480 is critical; this area corresponds to previous highs and a key resistance level marked on the charts. A decisive break above this zone, potentially fueled by the news, would provide the conditions for gold to challenge its previous record highs again and extend the medium-term uptrend.
Ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes release, gold is in a classic state of "intact trend, but entering a digestion phase." If the minutes adopt a hawkish tone, emphasizing inflation risks and reinforcing a stance of maintaining stable rates, gold prices could顺势 test the trendline and support zones, completing a technical correction. As long as any pullback remains within the broader ascending structure, it is more likely to be viewed as creating room for the next leg up. Conversely, if the minutes are dovish, refocusing the market on the future path of rate cuts, gold could find support near the trendline and potentially regain upward momentum, with the historic high zone once again becoming the market's primary target.
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