The 2026 Financial Annual Conference: Forecast and Strategy & 2025 Global Wealth Management Forum was held in Beijing from December 18 to 20, 2025.
Huang Wentao, Chief Economist and Co-Head of Research & Development at China Securities Co., Ltd., emphasized that China's consumer market still holds significant growth potential. Drawing from international experience, when per capita GDP reaches $15,000, consumption patterns shift toward service-oriented spending. By the end of this year, China's per capita GDP is expected to approach $14,000, indicating that service consumption is poised for rapid expansion. Currently, service-related expenditures account for 46.1% of per capita consumption in China, leaving substantial room for growth compared to developed economies. This trend will provide crucial support for stabilizing and reviving consumption.
Demographic shifts are also creating new consumption growth opportunities. As Generation Z enters the workforce, their strong preference for experiential spending and local cultural elements is driving the rise of new consumer categories. Meanwhile, the aging population is fueling the "silver economy," expanding demand for elderly care, health, medical services, and smart home appliances. In capital markets, the active performance of the new consumption sector in A-shares and Hong Kong reflects this trend. Additionally, rural residents exhibit higher income elasticity, and with income-boosting policies in place, rural consumption is expected to unlock considerable potential.
To stabilize and expand consumption, Huang proposed several policy recommendations. At the strategic level, he suggested maintaining the focus on boosting domestic demand as a long-term priority. During the 2026 and the 15th Five-Year Plan periods, more proactive fiscal policies and moderately accommodative monetary policies should be implemented to foster reasonable price recovery and steady economic growth.
To enhance incomes, Huang advocated for urban and rural income growth initiatives to promote an olive-shaped income distribution structure. Specific measures include stabilizing employment through relending subsidies and interest discounts, raising minimum grain purchase prices and farming subsidies to increase rural incomes, accelerating the clearance of overdue corporate payments to improve SME vitality, and gradually raising labor's share in primary income distribution. Policies supporting stable real estate and stock markets could also boost household property income, while increased transfer payments for low- and middle-income groups, as well as the elderly and children, would raise fertility subsidies and rural pension standards.
To optimize the consumption environment, Huang recommended increasing leisure time by implementing school spring and autumn breaks, paid leave systems, and restrictions on unnecessary overtime. New statutory holidays, such as Family Day and the Double Ninth Festival, could create more opportunities for spending. Expanding consumption scenarios, removing unreasonable restrictions, and supporting emerging sectors like debut economies, event-driven consumption, e-commerce, and AI-driven consumption are also vital. Encouraging novel activities such as paragliding, hot air ballooning, sailing, winter sports, and low-altitude economies, as well as repurposing idle commercial spaces into cultural and sports venues, would cater to diverse consumer needs. Additionally, lifting restrictions on real estate and car purchases in select cities could further unleash big-ticket consumption potential.
Huang concluded that the challenges facing China's consumer market are part of its development phase. With rising disposable incomes and effective policy implementation, consumption is expected to gradually recover, contributing to macroeconomic stability and serving as a core driver of high-quality economic growth.
Comments