Citigroup has issued a research report indicating that due to BUD APAC's (01876) revenue growth falling short of expectations, it has lowered its core net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 5% each. Sales forecasts have also been reduced by 3% and 4%, respectively. The firm continues to use a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, reducing the target price from HK$11.4 to HK$10.9, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. For the Asia Pacific West business, primarily focused on China, Citigroup applies a target 2026 EV/EBITDA multiple of 10 times. This represents a 15% premium to the global peer average, reflecting BUD APAC's dominant position and strong track record in China's premium and super-premium beer markets. For the Asia Pacific East business, which includes mature markets like South Korea, the target multiple is set at 8 times, aligning with the global peer average, reflecting its relatively slower pace of premiumization.
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