On Wednesday, January 28th local time, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, holding rates steady as widely anticipated. US stock markets showed limited volatility, while US Treasuries and digital currencies experienced minor fluctuations. The US dollar retreated from its daily highs following Chairman Powell's press conference, while gold continued its upward trajectory after the Fed's statement was released, with spot gold surging over 3% intraday to set another historic record.
Prior to the Fed's decision announcement, US stocks had retreated from their earlier session highs, US Treasury yields rose on the day, the dollar gained, and gold advanced: The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices saw minor declines, while the Nasdaq 100 index gained less than 0.4%. The "Magnificent Seven" tech stock index rose 0.1%, the semiconductor index jumped 2.2%, and the banking index fell 1%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note increased by 1.4 basis points to 4.2571%; the two-year Treasury yield rose 1.24 basis points, holding firm near its daily high of around 3.5875%. The US Dollar Index advanced 0.89% to 96.63. USD/JPY rose 1.12%, USD/CHF gained 1.34%, EUR/USD fell 0.99%, GBP/USD declined 0.55%, while the Australian dollar dropped 0.36%, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.38%, and the Canadian dollar decreased 0.14%. Spot gold climbed 1.80%, temporarily quoted at $5,274.50, while COMEX gold futures surged 3.71%. Spot silver fell 0.65%, whereas New York silver futures jumped 5.15%. COMEX copper futures increased 0.96%. WTI crude oil futures rose 1.17%, and Brent crude gained 1.01%.
At 3 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's January meeting concluded with no change in policy as expected. The statement expressed more optimism about the labor market compared to the previous month, while also noting that inflation remains elevated, suggesting no urgency to act. Fed Governor Waller supported another 25 basis point rate cut. US stocks and Treasuries showed little short-term volatility, while the US dollar briefly moved higher: Declines in the S&P and Dow indices widened slightly to over 0.1%, though overall movement was limited. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note experienced short-term fluctuations exceeding 1 basis point, refreshing its daily high to above 4.26%. The two-year Treasury yield saw swings of over 1.5 basis points, reaching a new daily high above 3.59%. The US dollar edged slightly higher in the short term; the ICE US Dollar Index quickly refreshed its daily high to 96.787 following the release of the Fed's policy statement. Spot gold held steady around the $5,270 level, maintaining an intraday gain of over 1.7%. Digital currencies saw modest short-term gains, with overall volatility remaining contained. Both the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index and the Equity Index held steady.
During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell stated that raising rates is not the base case for the next policy move for anyone; inflation risks have subsided to some extent, but inflation remains too high; he would not comment on the US dollar's movements. During Powell's press conference, US stock volatility was relatively muted, the US dollar retreated from its earlier daily highs, and gold prices surged significantly: The S&P and Dow indices were roughly flat, the Nasdaq index rose 0.3%, and the semiconductor index gained 2.5%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note briefly turned negative, approaching 4.24%, moving away from the daily high of 4.2691% reached just one minute before Powell's press conference began. The two-year Treasury yield increased by 1.24 basis points to 3.5854%; the 30-year Treasury yield dipped slightly by 0.1 basis points. The ICE US Dollar Index maintained a gain of less than 0.3%, holding above 96.4. EUR/USD fell over 0.8%, GBP/USD declined 0.4%, and USD/JPY rose over 0.8%. Gold prices刷新ed a new all-time high above $5,340 following the conclusion of Powell's press conference. Spot gold surged over 3%, reaching a fresh historic peak of $5,341.85 per ounce as the press conference ended. Spot silver saw its gains re-widen to over 2.3%. Digital currencies oscillated during Powell's press conference; Bitcoin initially moved lower, then recovered, and subsequently retreated again after the conference concluded, with overall volatility not being substantial.
The chart below shows the movement of the S&P 500 index:
The chart below shows the movement of the 2-year Treasury yield:
The chart below shows the movement of the 10-year Treasury yield:
The chart below shows the movement of the US Dollar:
The chart below shows the movement of Gold:
The chart below shows the movement of Bitcoin:
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