According to Woofun AI, Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, heightening geopolitical uncertainty, and combined with a vacuum in macroeconomic data, the crypto Fear and Greed Index still shows greed, yet major coins are broadly under pressure.
Bitcoin briefly touched $85,000 before falling back below $84,000, Ethereum traded in a range between $2,667 and $2,720, while Dogecoin edged higher against the trend.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that over $190 million in positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with longs and shorts roughly balanced, and BTC open interest down 0.50% daily and more than 11% weekly. Binance whale-level derivatives traders are bullish, while ordinary retail traders are neutral. The global crypto market capitalization stands at $2.97 trillion, down 0.60% on the day.
At 8:49 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time, traditional markets weakened in tandem: Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 152 points (0.30%), S&P 500 futures dropped 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.19%.
Trump stressed he hopes to reach an agreement around the midterm elections, but in the near term the market needs to digest the impact of Wednesday's August Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and Friday's September employment report.
Technical signals are increasingly divided. Analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out that BTC must break through the key resistance level of $84,800 before it can open an upward channel toward $90,000. However, Chartered Market Technician Axel Kibbal remains cautious, arguing that BTC's weekly chart action around $84,000 to $85,000 lacks the characteristics of a decisive breakout.
Typically, an effective breakout is accompanied by a long-bodied white or black weekly candlestick, while the current indecisive pattern suggests the price may return to this range once again. The market is at a critical point of choosing direction, with bulls and bears battling fiercely at key price levels.
If an effective breakout cannot be formed, BTC may continue to fluctuate within the range, waiting for guidance from macroeconomic data. This is another stress test of the market's expectations for tightening liquidity following the geopolitical disruption.
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