The shipping industry's commitment to green energy has waned, with most shipowners continuing to rely on traditional, high-pollution marine fossil fuels or exploring alternative energy sources including nuclear power.
According to the latest annual survey of shipping executives by the International Chamber of Shipping, confidence in ammonia or hydrogen becoming viable fuel sources has dropped significantly this year, as shipping companies prioritize cost and availability over addressing rising carbon emissions.
The proportion of shipping executives who believe ammonia will achieve commercial viability within the next decade has fallen from 31% last year to 12% this year. Their confidence in hydrogen has also decreased, from 18% to 10%.
In contrast, confidence in traditional fuel oil as the most viable option has risen from 41% last year to 50%, despite global supply chain disruptions from the conflict in Iran.
Data from a Boston Consulting Group report indicates the industry has fragmented into camps supporting different technologies and fuels, as shippers' willingness to pay a "green premium" for cleaner shipping has diminished. The shipping sector accounts for approximately 3% of global emissions and 11% of transport emissions.
"Everyone wants to be green, but no one wants to pay for it," said Alexander Saverys, CEO of CMB Tech, one of the largest listed shipping companies.
Although the 176 member states of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) previously agreed to reduce shipping emissions to "net zero" by 2050, the proposal has nearly collapsed this year.
Negotiations that were expected to pave the way for the first global carbon pricing mechanism met with strong opposition, led by the United States. The IMO, the UN agency responsible for setting global shipping standards, is currently reviewing four proposals in an attempt to reach consensus among its deeply divided members.
"We need to realize that the shipping industry cannot decarbonize on its own. We need assistance from all industries, including the energy sector," said IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez at a recent meeting, adding that future discussions might take place under "a better geopolitical situation."
However, shipping executives argue that a net-zero framework will only become truly viable when greener fuels are cheaper and more widely available. Semiramis Paliou, CEO of dry bulk shipping company Diana Shipping, stated that alternative fuels have been "put on the back burner for a while, but I think it's temporary."
She noted that choosing a fuel when purchasing a vessel with a 20-25 year lifespan is "a very difficult decision, and to some extent, a bit of a gamble. Some technologies are better suited for certain vessels, and others for different ones."
This challenge, combined with the insufficient supply of ammonia, methanol, and other cleaner fuels, is prompting shipowners to order an increasing number of so-called "dual-fuel" vessels, which can use both traditional and cleaner fuels.
Others—particularly Greek shipowners—are returning to building new vessels powered by fossil fuels, arguing that modern ships can be 25% more efficient.
"Whatever we do, energy will be scarce, so we need to look for ways to reduce consumption," said Ioanna Procopiou, CEO of ship management company Prominence Maritime, at an industry conference in Greece.
Greece, which controls about one-fifth of the global merchant fleet tonnage, is one of the countries, alongside the United States and Saudi Arabia, that has obstructed the IMO's net-zero plans.
Shipowners contend that even if all currently available supplies of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol were dedicated to shipping, it would only satisfy a small fraction of the industry's needs.
Maersk of Denmark, one of the world's largest container shipping lines and an early investor in methanol, operates the world's first methanol-powered vessel. However, over the past two years, the company has diversified its orderbook to include LNG-powered ships.
Some shipowners are exploring unconventional solutions to extend the use of fossil fuels. For instance, container shipping lines like Hapag-Lloyd have studied technology from Seabound. This startup uses pebbles to capture CO2 from ship exhaust and convert it into limestone.
Scientists have expressed doubts about the economics and feasibility of carbon capture technology. But Alisha Fredriksson, founder of Seabound and a former employee at an e-methanol company, suggests dual-fuel vessels may struggle to find greener fuels and could turn instead to carbon capture.
Other shipowners are turning to more time-tested methods: for example, the global fleet of wind-assisted cargo ships surpassed 100 vessels this month.
Interest in nuclear propulsion has also increased notably—a technology long used in military submarines but rarely in commercial shipping, except for Russian icebreakers.
The United States is actively promoting this technology to revitalize its shipbuilding industry and redeploy its nuclear expertise. In June, the American Bureau of Shipping approved a design for a nuclear-powered vessel from the MIT Maritime Alliance.
A major advantage of nuclear power, as noted by proponents, is that a ship could sail for decades without refueling. Reduced concerns about fuel consumption and pollution also mean vessels could sail at higher speeds.
Professor Themis Sapsis of Mechanical and Ocean Engineering at MIT stated that one of the biggest issues is reactor safety. The MIT design avoids high-pressure systems, reducing the risk of a reactor explosion and allowing for the use of lower levels of uranium enrichment.
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