According to the latest economic data released by the Conference Board, the US economy continues to face certain pressures in 2025. The report shows that the US Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.1% in July 2025 to 98.7, following a 0.3% decrease in June. Over the six-month period from January to July this year, the LEI has cumulatively declined 2.7%, significantly higher than the 1.0% decline from July last year to January this year.
Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager and Head of Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, stated: "The US Leading Economic Index declined only slightly in July. Consumer pessimism about business prospects and weakness in new orders continued to drag down the index. However, stock prices remain an important positive support for the LEI. Additionally, initial jobless claims fell sharply in early July, providing the second-largest positive contribution to the index, whereas this indicator had negatively impacted the index over the previous three months."
She noted that while the LEI's six-month growth rate remains negative, it improved in July, though not enough to avoid signaling economic recession again. Overall, the Conference Board does not currently expect the US to enter a recession, but anticipates economic slowdown in the second half of 2025, with negative impacts from tariffs gradually emerging. Real GDP growth is projected at 1.6% for the full year, further slowing to 1.3% in 2026.
Meanwhile, the US Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.2% in July to 114.9, after remaining unchanged in June (previously reported as a 0.3% increase in initial estimates). From January to July, the CEI accumulated a 0.9% increase, higher than the 0.6% growth in the previous six months.
The four components of the CEI - non-farm employment, personal income (excluding transfer payments), manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production - serve as important indicators for determining US economic recession. Among these, all indicators except industrial production improved in July.
On the other hand, the US Lagging Economic Index (LAG) remained unchanged in both June and July at 119.9. From January to July this year, this index accumulated a 0.9% increase, reversing the 0.1% decline trend from the previous six months.
Comments