美联储加息75个基点成华尔街共识，美股离筑底还有多远？

第一财经2022-06-15

纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员安德森（Timothy Anderson）向第一财经记者解释道，10日出炉的5月消费者价格指数（CPI）和6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数明确显示，美国民众最关心的通胀问题仍在恶化。“联储官员必须向消费者...

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北纬1度线
2022-06-16
北纬1度线
👍🏻
嘞撸虎7
2022-06-16
嘞撸虎7
閱
LI_CHUN
2022-06-16
LI_CHUN
up
crazybee1235
2022-06-15
crazybee1235
Hi
crazybee1235
2022-06-15
crazybee1235
Hi
sammoun
2022-06-15
sammoun
加油

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How far is the US stock market from bottoming out?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e1ae51a6db266397830e5b7fc77edb6","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"纽交所交易员安德森说：“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”从50个基点到75个基点，美联储加息预期似乎在一夜之间就发生了巨变，投资者也似乎朝夕之间就完成了心理建设。“突然间，市场就达成了共识。”纽交所交易员安德森（Timothy Anderson）向第一财经记者解释道，10日出炉的5月消费者价格指数（CPI）和6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数明确显示，美国民众最关心的通胀问题仍在恶化。“联储官员必须向消费者和投资者表态，抗通胀，他们是认真的。”安德森认为，“认真”的表现形式就是扩大加息的幅度。截至第一财经记者发稿时，芝商所利率观察工具（FedWatch Tool）显示，押注15日美联储加息75个基点的概率由前一日的34.6%骤然升至95.8%，而一周前，仅为3.9%。高盛、摩根大通、富国银行、德意志银行、巴克莱和杰夫瑞等多家机构均预测，美联储将在15日后宣布75个基点加息，若预测准确，这将成1994年以来美联储最大幅度的单次加息。6月加息75个基点的概率高达95.8%（图源：芝商所官网）纠错？美联储以往通常尽可能与市场充分沟通，避免市场震荡。在6月4日开始的静默期之前，包括鲍威尔在内的不少美联储官员表示支持本周加息50个基点，并在7月再次加息50个基点。那么，市场为何认为美联储将会“食言”？券商OANDA高级市场分析师莫亚（Edward Moya）对第一财经记者表示，美联储转变态度实则是纠正错误。“一直以来，鲍威尔对通胀存在错判，如果美联储再不积极加息，恐有政策失误的风险。”他称，美联储正试图避免上世纪70年代犯过的错误，75个基点的加息幅度将是向正确的政策方向迈出一步。对冲基金Pershing Square创始人阿克曼（Bill Ackman）则认为，这将是美联储挽回市场信心的机会。他表示，美联储允许通胀失控的现实，令股市和信贷市场对美联储失去信心，他甚至认为，6月、7月及随后的议息会议加息100个基点会是更好的方案。“美联储越早达到终端利率，就能越快开始放松货币政策，市场就能越早实现复苏。”他说。靴子落地后，市场能否筑底？美股正在抢跑美联储，为更激进的加息前景重新定价。隔夜，标普500指数五连阴，继续于熊市区间下探，跌至2021年1月以来的低位，较其1月历史高位跌超22%。上次熊市期间，标普500指数较前高下跌33.9%才开始反弹。另有数据显示，标普500指数熊市平均持续时间超过18个月。美国银行最新月度调查显示，鹰派央行被投资者视为市场面临的最大尾部风险，全球经济衰退是第二大风险，基金经理对全球经济前景的悲观情绪达到历史之最，对滞胀的担忧达到2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。美银首席全球股票策略师哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）在报告中写道，华尔街悲观情绪堪忧。莫亚对第一财经记者表示，即便美联储靴子落地，短期之内华尔街将很难看到任何可能的反弹。安德森则认为，金融市场将欣然接受75个基点的加息，可能不会立刻看到美股反弹，但股市的下行压力应该会得到一定缓解。本周是央行超级周，除了美联储，英格兰银行、日本央行等都将公布利率决议，然而，各国都面临自身的经济挑战，在能源、食品价格飙升，供应链问题加剧等全球问题上越发难以独善其身。荷兰国际集团（ING）宏观研究全球主管布热斯基（Carsten Brzeski）表示：“各大央行好像自己都慌了，市场突然需要接受这个高利率的新时代，因此股市出现大幅调整，也是合理的。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9054943927,"gmtCreate":1655340119969,"gmtModify":1676535617070,"author":{"id":"3577005617035851","authorId":"3577005617035851","name":"北纬1度线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4e2bd60feda0f7eb2d2f34c6b4dc130","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1eed764d9c7ff83dc093fbb9a96bc2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3577005617035851","idStr":"3577005617035851"},"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054943927","repostId":1183345309,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9054017790,"gmtCreate":1655332730910,"gmtModify":1676535613082,"author":{"id":"4092032122452460","authorId":"4092032122452460","name":"嘞撸虎7","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451ff62190f624c13c07b54476dd5930","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4092032122452460","idStr":"4092032122452460"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9054017790","repostId":1183345309,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9055748256,"gmtCreate":1655323033975,"gmtModify":1676535611792,"author":{"id":"3572958738473495","authorId":"3572958738473495","name":"LI_CHUN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e79a6fd440b62595feb97d20d45237","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572958738473495","idStr":"3572958738473495"},"htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055748256","repostId":1183345309,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9055425687,"gmtCreate":1655304394149,"gmtModify":1676535608892,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576803992145384","idStr":"3576803992145384"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055425687","repostId":1183345309,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9055422209,"gmtCreate":1655304339401,"gmtModify":1676535608843,"author":{"id":"3576803992145384","authorId":"3576803992145384","name":"crazybee1235","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c499a430cc5a688f27aebff6afef12a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576803992145384","idStr":"3576803992145384"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055422209","repostId":1183345309,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9055488182,"gmtCreate":1655302618946,"gmtModify":1676535608176,"author":{"id":"3582594066192611","authorId":"3582594066192611","name":"sammoun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e7332e8a814cce6b66f14a5486f86a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3582594066192611","idStr":"3582594066192611"},"htmlText":"加油","listText":"加油","text":"加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9055488182","repostId":1183345309,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":80,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":9,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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