On December 15, multiple key economic data scheduled for release this week have become the market's focus, including the delayed October and November non-farm payroll reports, average hourly earnings growth, and unemployment rate data due to the U.S. government shutdown. These labor market indicators will provide critical references for assessing economic conditions, thereby influencing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's January meeting decision. Additionally, the latest inflation data to be released on Thursday is also highly anticipated, as marginal changes in inflation trends will directly impact the future direction of monetary policy. Ahead of the data releases, some traders have adopted relatively cautious position management strategies, which have somewhat restrained one-sided price volatility.
From a capital flow perspective, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to record net inflows, reflecting sustained institutional investor demand for precious metal allocations. Central bank gold purchases also serve as a structural support factor for gold prices, with the global trend of reserve asset diversification driving strategic gold accumulation at the central bank level. Furthermore, the shift of funds from sovereign bonds and money markets to precious metals continues, closely tied to hedging against inflation risks, avoiding currency fluctuations, and seeking diversified asset preservation. In terms of the U.S. dollar, the dollar index has recently shown a weak and volatile pattern, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has retreated to around 4%, both indirectly supporting dollar-denominated gold prices.
Technical Analysis: Gold's strong momentum continues at the start of the week. In early trading, gold remains above $4,300, clearly maintaining absolute strength. Based on last Friday's trading range between $4,350 and $4,257, gold is expected to stay within this broad range for now. Traders are advised to focus on long positions while remaining cautious about potential pullbacks if $4,350 resistance holds.
During the European session, gold prices initially tested resistance near $4,347 before retreating to $4,333 and then breaking higher again. Short-term resistance is currently seen around last week's high of $4,353. A breakout above this level would shift focus to the previous high near $4,380, followed by the key $4,400 level, which may test market risk sentiment. If gold faces renewed pressure near $4,350, the first support level to watch is $4,300, with further downside potential toward the 4-hour and daily moving average convergence zone around $4,275-$4,260.
Key resistance levels to monitor are $4,350, $4,360, and $4,380, while support levels are $4,300, $4,275, and $4,260—critical points for potential rebounds.
Gold Trading Strategy: [Intraday recommendation: Trade within $4,350-$4,300 (allow ±$3 deviation). Set a $7 stop-loss, with a bullish bias.] Short: $4,360 (±$5), stop-loss $10, target $4,320-$4,275. Long: $4,275 (±$5), stop-loss $10, target $4,330-$4,350.
Disclaimer: Market conditions are subject to change. Investors should conduct their own risk assessments and make decisions accordingly.
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