On January 16th, the indices strengthened, with the ChiNext Index rising by over 1%. As of writing, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.55%, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index advanced 0.9%. On the market, chip stocks continued their strong performance in the early session, with SICC (天岳先进) surging over 12%. The humanoid robot concept was also active, with Zhejiang Sling Intelligent Drive Group Co.,Ltd. (斯菱智驱) rising over 13% and Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product Co.,Ltd. (恒辉安卫) hitting the 20% daily limit-up. Power grid equipment stocks opened significantly higher, with Sanbian Technology securing its fourth consecutive limit-up, while Xinlian Electronics and Baobian Electric both marked their second straight limit-up, and Pinggao Electric also reached the limit-up. Conversely, oil and gas stocks experienced adjustments, with Tongyuan Petroleum falling over 10%. Looking ahead, Orient Securities stated that the short-term Spring Festival rally is not yet over, and the slow bull market continues. It is anticipated that the Shanghai Composite Index will maintain a range-bound fluctuation between 4000 and 4200 points before the Spring Festival, with a continued focus on growth styles playing catch-up, especially future industries. The chip sector continued its upward trajectory in early trading. SICC (天岳先进) led the charge with a surge exceeding 12%, while Tongcheng New Materials, Sanfu Shares, Liyang Chip, Hengkun New Materials, and Jingce Electronics all saw gains of over 7%. Commentary: On the news front, TSMC projected its capital expenditure for 2026 to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, following a total capital expenditure of $40.9 billion in 2025. The humanoid robot concept demonstrated active performance. Zhejiang Sling Intelligent Drive Group Co.,Ltd. (斯菱智驱) jumped over 13%, and Jiangsu Hanvo Safety Product Co.,Ltd. (恒辉安卫) hit the 20cm daily limit-up. Sanhua Intelligent Control, Lixing Shares, Zhenyu Technology, Effort, Zhejiang Rongtai, and Wanxiang Qianchao also followed with gains. Commentary: According to a report from Counterpoint Research, the global annual installation volume of humanoid robots is expected to reach approximately 16,000 units in 2025. Agile Robots is projected to lead global manufacturers in annual humanoid robot installations, followed by Unitree Robotics and UBTECH. Orient Securities believes that from a short-term perspective, the Spring Festival rally is not yet over, and the slow bull market is set to continue. The overall performance of the A-share market is not exceptionally strong, gradually returning to a healthy and rational state. Recently, sectors and stocks that were "overheated" have experienced larger pullbacks, such as commercial aerospace and AI applications, which is directly related to Wednesday's combination of "deleveraging and substantial sell orders." Market participants largely share this consensus. On the other hand, positive news emerged after the market close; the People's Bank of China lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year rate for various relending facilities dropping to 1.25%, and rates for other tenors adjusted accordingly. The interest rate cut may benefit today's market trend, but considering the cooling signals and the rapid shrinkage of trading volume below the trillion-yuan mark, the stock indices are expected to remain primarily range-bound, temporarily lacking a clear directional trend. Structural opportunities in sectors or individual stocks are likely to persist, such as the strengthening themes during the session like precious metals, the semiconductor industry chain, and travel and hotels, which have filled the void left by the pullback in popular sectors. In the short term, the Spring Festival rally is unfinished, and the slow bull market continues. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate between 4000 and 4200 points before the Spring Festival, with a continued focus on growth styles playing catch-up, especially future industries. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities suggests that the current market is roughly in the high zone of a "structural bull" phase, where interim adjustments and fluctuations are inevitable. Fu Jingtao, Chief A-share Strategist at Shenwan Hongyuan, stated that although the current market is approximately in the high area of a "structural bull" phase, and interim corrections and volatility are unavoidable, their magnitude is expected to be relatively limited. He judges that, firstly, the large-wave bull market will come to a pause; secondly, following the演绎 of the Spring Festival rally, the market may enter a phase of interim adjustment lasting a quarter. CICC anticipates that the growth rate of financial aggregates may continue to slow in the first half of 2026. Looking ahead to 2026, CICC expects the growth rate of financial aggregates to potentially continue slowing in the first half of the year. In the first three quarters of 2025, influenced by factors such as the expansion and front-loading of government bond issuance and a relatively low base in 2024, the growth rates of total social financing, M1, and M2 improved significantly, establishing a high base. Looking at the liquidity environment for 2026, regarding fiscal policy, it may place greater emphasis on quality and efficiency rather than a significant further increase in aggregate volume. The broad fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is not expected to rise substantially. Although government bond issuance will likely still be front-loaded, the year-on-year increase in scale may slow compared to 2025. On the monetary policy front, the communiqué from the PBOC Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 meeting largely continued the tone of downplaying the demand for financial aggregate growth. The implied rate cut expectations in the interest rate derivatives market have also significantly moderated compared to levels at the beginning of 2025.
Comments