Gold analyst P. Radomski published another note this week arguing that gold may have finished its final rebound and is now entering a dangerous phase similar to the one that preceded the April 2013 plunge, with the next leg down potentially pushing prices toward $3,500. He first made his bearish call two months ago, when gold was still trading near $4,426 on September 1, warning that the following months could mirror the 2012–2013 pattern. Gold subsequently fell sharply. Here is his overall view:
Gold appears to be replaying the 2013 crash
His core argument is that both episodes share a similar three-stage structure. In April 2013, gold did not collapse immediately after breaking below its prior low. Instead, it rebounded for three consecutive sessions, giving investors the illusion that the decline was over. Then came sudden concentrated selling, with a 5.1% drop on April 12 and a further 9.1% slump on April 15. In 2026, an almost identical structure is emerging. On October 30, gold hit a swing low of $3,879; on November 9, it rebounded to $4,157; on November 12, it fell again to $3,856, breaking the prior low; and on November 13, it rebounded once more to around $3,900. For easier reading, we have laid out his overall thinking in a chart (click to enlarge):
The 2026 move is unfolding faster than in 2013
In 2013, it took 13 calendar days from the final rebound high to the break below the prior low. In 2026, the same process took only 3 calendar days. The author concludes that the 2026 downtrend structure is not only similar to 2013 but evolving more rapidly. If history repeats, gold may not have enough time to consolidate before the next sharp decline. He therefore sets $3,500 as the target for the next phase.
Two events that should have helped gold but failed to lift prices
First, Friday's US PPI came in below expectations, yet gold failed to sustain a rebound. Second, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East did nothing to stop gold from falling. War headlines that once would have driven gold higher are now weighing on it instead. In 2013, gold's "real" crash came after it broke support and staged a brief rebound. The author believes gold in 2026 has already reached that dangerous point. History does not necessarily repeat itself, but a rebound after a major decline is exactly what lulls people into dropping their guard. Risk warning: the above content is provided solely as general information for readers.
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