Why Twitter's Stock Can Revisit $80/Share Within 12-18 Months

seekingalpha2021-05-25

SummaryThe company's share price reflects skepticism that its user base can grow to 315 Million Users by 2023.Twitter is expanding its advertising model to include more "Direct Response Products" and ...

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Comments

OO_898
2021-05-25
OO_898
Good to share
WildFoE
2021-05-25
WildFoE
Share and like pls. Thanks.
- 4ebeaef4:
  Pls reply
Stingers
2021-05-25
Stingers
Slowly but surely
- stinger77:
  Agree
- Stingers:
  nice
BK_001
2021-05-25
BK_001
Comment and like pls
- WildFoE:
  ??
PeggyC
2021-05-25
PeggyC
Liked
XuanCheng
2021-05-25
XuanCheng
Comment and like me pls!

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Any positive development and execution is likely to send its share price much higher from here over a 12-18 month time frame.TWTR was punished 15% after its latest quarterly Q1 2021 earnings in late April, and the share price is reflecting greater skepticism that the company can reach its publicly stated goal of 315 Million Users by 2023.But Twitter doesn’t need to reach 315 Million Users for shareholders to experience upside, and that is because the value of a social media company will proportionally go higher with its user base network over time.Social media companies are scrutinized for their ability to attract a larger loyal user network, because time spent on the platform and strong engagement metrics give advertisers the potential to get in front of eyeballs and attract potential customers. The larger and deeper a social network, the greater the value of the social media company.In fact, just taking a brief stroll back in history, the size of Twitter’s user base was cited as a risk in its IPO prospectus.Source: Wall Street JournalNow that we understand that it is Twitter’s User Base and engagement metrics that matter most to an advertiser, let’s dive into a brief walkthrough of its user base today and how the stock price has reacted to it.The last time Twitter traded in the low to mid $50 range was in Q4 2020. At the time, Twitter had a network size of around192 million Monetizable Daily Active Users (mDAU). As of the latest quarter,Twitter (TWTR) now has 199 million mDAUs. Essentially, shareholders are now paying the same price for a larger network than several months ago, one that is more active and more highly engaged than users on Facebook (FB).If we study the price relationship of Twitter over time, you can see that large price movements come from Wall Street’s assessment of their user base growth. Any development surrounding the potential to attract more users is most likely the main driver of Twitter’s share price going forward.More users equals more opportunity for advertising revenue growth.Source: Created by Author using data from Twitter’s Quarterly Earnings ReportsWhy Twitter’s entrance into Direct Response Ad Products will help advertisers achieve a higher ROIAnother important metric to follow is what types of return on investment advertisers can expect by advertising on Twitter.Up until this point, Twitter’s business model includes generating 85% of its revenue through Advertising and 15% through Data Licensing.Because Advertising is the lion-share of Twitter’s current business model, it is important to understand how effectively they can deliver a return on investment for advertisers on their platform. Ultimately, advertisers will spend more ad dollars on a platform if the ROI is strong.A breakdown of Twitter's major clients is listed below, and you can see that unlike Facebook (FB) which generatesapproximately 75% of their Ads revenue from Small Business, most advertisers on Twitter tend to be more established companies.(Source: Statista analysis of Twitter’s Largest Advertisers)Moreover, Twitter Advertisers typically employ “Brand Marketing” which is a way to educate the public and consumers that they exist and provide a valuable service. Brand Marketing typically delivers a ROI that is longer-term in nature because it’s a much more top-of-funnel way to attract future customers. Most of the Advertising Revenue at Twitter is used to fund Brand Marketing campaigns for companies.This is in contrast to Facebook’s core advertising model where most Small Businesses tend to employ “Direct Response” marketing. This type of marketing is the kind of Ad that attempts to collect user/email information in exchange for content that has immediate use in the short-term. Direct response marketing typically creates an “open gap” for a consumer’s current situation and future situation, and creates a desire to call the company to solve the problem.From this comparison, we can see that Twitter’s Ads in brand marketing are designed to generate ROI from a longer-term perspective while Facebook Ads with direct response marketing can help small businesses generate ROI from a short-term perspective.This difference in advertising along with the sheer size difference between the two social media companies explains why small businesses tend to advertise on Facebook because they see a clearer ROI.But that might be changing because Twitter is making progress on their direct response ad products as noted in their latest Q1 2021 Earnings Highlight.Source: Twitter's Q1 2021 Earnings ReportIf Twitter can grow its user base at the current rate of growth and make progress on Direct Response products, it is possible that Small Businesses could start considering shifting ad dollars onto Twitter to diversify their advertising strategies. This is especially true if Facebook cannot help small businesses navigate the new changes of Apple’s iOS 14.5 update.Twitter’s User Base: A hidden advantage for its profitabilityOne advantage that Twitter has over other trendy social media platforms such as Snapchat (SNAP) and TikTok is that Twitter’s user base is generally wealthier and are college educated. This has significant implications for advertisers because companies want to generate a return on investment from their advertising efforts.Advertising to a network of users that cannot afford the companies’ product or service offerings will result in weak conversions and also soft ROI outcomes. Twitter’s educated and wealthier user base is a treasure trove of users that can likely afford higher-ticket items if they are advertised to and targeted with the right message correctly.The one area of concern that I share with enthusiastic Twitter bulls is that the U.S. User Base is not growing as quickly as before. The U.S. User Base for Twitter (or any social media company for that matter) tends to the most profitable demographic. You can see in the chart below that Twitter was able to grow its user base in the U.S. by only 5 million users from 33 Million in Q1 2020 to 38 Million in Q1 2021.Source: Created by Author using data from Twitter’s Quarterly Earnings ReportsThat brings me to my next point - how Twitter will continue to revitalize their user base growth in the U.S. and in International markets.Twitter entering a new space: New Subscription and Content Creator ModelThis is an area that Twitter is starting to explore that could revitalize its user base growth and bring upside to the share price forecast I mentioned earlier.It’s no surprise to investors that fast growing social media companies deserve the highest multiples and deserve to trade at a premium relative to their peers.The fastest growing trend today in social media is the Influencer / Content Creator economy. To illustrate this, TikTok and YouTube (GOOG) attract a significant number of influencers and creators to create valuable content and build a powerful, loyal community. These platforms are a self-fulfilling cycle of growth becauseYouTube and TikTok attract the best creators, who are able to build large followings and bring that following of users onto the platforms. The end result is thatYouTube and TikTok become a highly sought after destination for companies to utilize their ad spend.Twitter is finally starting to get into the creator economy space (as so is Facebook), and I believe that Twitter has a greater chance at succeeding in this initiative than Facebook.So while Twitter is relatively late to the game, behindYouTube andTikTok, its current communication platform structure of (1 to many) rather than a friends/family social network on Facebook will allow it to carve out its presence as a space for influencers to connect with their fans.Twitter has officially announced that it will be releasing Twitter Spaces, which is a direct competitor to Clubhouse. Twitter spaces will allow creators with over 600 followers to host rooms and chat with their audience in an audio-setting.In addition to Twitter Spaces, Twitter will release“Super Follows”, which allow Content Creators to monetize their content by sharing exclusive content with their most loyal fans. This will be similar to how famousYouTubers monetize their content through a platform like Patreon.Source of Photo: The VergeThe longer-term implications of this development is that Twitter is likely to attract a younger demographic that has been emboldened by the new creator economy to create content on Twitter and develop a following to later monetize their content. This will recharge Twitter’s user base growth in the U.S and in its international markets and help the company become more valuable to advertisers.And of course, another benefit is finally diversifying Twitter’s revenue beyond pure-play advertising and data licensing, carving out opportunities to generate revenue through a recurring subscription model.Valuation Considerations: The Bottom Line - How to think of Twitter’s Stock price from a 12-18 month perspective.After its Analyst Day Investor Presentation earlier in February 2021, strong investor enthusiasm about Twitter's new product launches and its anticipated impact on user growth prospects pushed Twitter’s valuation to nearly 16x Sales with a share price high of $80. This highlights how sensitive the stock price is to Twitter's user growth.In addition, Management stated that they planned to double revenue from $3.7 billion to $7.5 billion in 2023 from a combination of growing advertising market share in both brand marketing and direct response.After Twitter's user growth update from its earnings report disappointed the Street,TWTRcorrected back to the $55 range.Today, Twitter’s share price fetches 11x times sales, which is a slight premium to its 5-year average of 8x times sales.I believe using a Sales (P/S and forward P/S) multiple to value Twitter is the most appropriate valuation metric to understand Twitter’s valuation and its future. That is because Twitter has spent years underinvesting in their research & development and is most recently ramping up their cost infrastructure to hire stronger engineering and product development talent to compete more aggressively in the digital advertising space.In the short run, this increase in cost structure will negatively affect profitability, margins, and net income. This makes the traditional earnings multiples (P/E and Forward P/E) more difficult to evaluate the true health of their business. From the way the stock prices for social media companies move, it is much more important to understand and forecast user base growth (growing market share) and revenue growth (product market fit).A critical assumption to our price forecast of $80/share is that Twitter can hold the same P/S multiple of 11x using2022 average Wall Street consensus estimated revenue(assuming Management is on track with their revenue projections). If that is the case, Twitter’s shares may start to drift towards ~$80/share in the next 12-18 months.From a revenue growth perspective, a price to sales multiple of 11x is fair given Twitter’s plan to double revenue by 2023, which would assume 25% revenue growth this year and for the next 2 years. The market has historically rewarded companies with +20% consistent revenue growth with a price to sales multiple of 10 or more.Some final thoughts and valuation commentary:I believe that Management’s goal of doubling revenue to 7.5 billion by 2023 from 3.7 billion is ambitious but achievable. Twitter has a small market share of the entire digital advertising market, and up until this point, it has not diversified its product offerings to grow its user base.Twitter has been using their cash balances ($8.8 billion) to make acquisitions to start diversifying their revenue models into subscriptions. New business models that diversify revenue will only further support the P/S premium multiple.At the current valuation of 11x Sales, I do not believe that Twitter is very “undervalued” or that its valuation is inexpensive. But I believe the Street is correct to place a slight premium on Twitter given its current positioning in the social media & digital advertising landscape.I believe that Twitter is fairly priced and I am gaining confidence that the company can at least maintain at its current rate of user growth. That observation alone is likely to help the company’s shares appreciate beyond its current trading range of $55.If Twitter can expand and execute decently in its new product rollouts, and develop a stronger direct response product to attract small businesses, Twitter has a strong chance at achieving the revenue growth that Management laid out in its investor presentation earlier this year.Should Twitter achieve 20-25% revenue growth this year and in 2022 with their deeper penetration in the digital advertising space, it’s likely that they will continue to be given a valuation of 11x 2022 estimated revenue or more. This implies that shares may head towards $80 (45% upside) or more in the coming 12-18 months.This is all, of course, assuming that the Fed doesn’t blink at inflation, rapidly raise interest rates, or the U.S. economy gets hit by an unforeseen shock. Twitter’s business model is less diversified compared to Facebook and Google and is likely to be more sensitive to economic shocks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":138890063,"gmtCreate":1621922978852,"gmtModify":1704364511331,"author":{"id":"3582969710070724","authorId":"3582969710070724","name":"OO_898","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb3c360d5d7711641a868a144192fc7","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Good to share&nbsp;","listText":"Good to share&nbsp;","text":"Good to share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138890063","repostId":1183612593,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":138178782,"gmtCreate":1621921518246,"gmtModify":1704364490186,"author":{"id":"3582681863367126","authorId":"3582681863367126","name":"WildFoE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67af813b31febdb58805e26e317209f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Share and like pls. Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Share and like pls. Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Share and like pls. 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