Abstract
Moelis will report quarterly results on February 04, 2026 Post Market. Consensus points to a rebound in advisory activity and rising margins, with investors focused on whether elevated deal pipelines translate to stronger fee conversion and improved adjusted EPS amid a gradually normalizing capital markets backdrop.
Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter indicates total revenue of 0.44 billion US dollars, an estimated year-over-year increase of 29.19%, with EBIT of 0.09 billion US dollars and EPS of 0.82, reflecting an estimated year-over-year increase of 68.68%. The company’s margin mix is expected to improve alongside higher fee throughput; however, if forecast data for gross profit margin or net profit margin is not explicitly provided, the market is primarily watching operating leverage through EBIT and EPS inflection. The main business outlook highlights a firmer advisory fee environment with improved conversion from announced to closed transactions and a healthier new-issue calendar. The most promising area is the uptick in higher-fee complex M&A and restructuring mandates, where revenues are poised to rise from depressed bases; specific segment revenue and year-over-year data are not disclosed by the company.
Last Quarter Review
In the preceding quarter, Moelis delivered revenue of 0.36 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 92.71%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.05 billion US dollars with a net profit margin of 14.95%, and adjusted EPS of 0.67, with year-over-year growth of 104.55%. Management noted resilient fee rates and disciplined expense control that helped expand operating margins as activity improved from prior-year trough levels. The firm’s core advisory franchise benefited from a broader set of mandates across M&A and restructuring; specific segment revenue and year-over-year contributions were not disclosed.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Advisory Revenue Run-Rate and Operating Leverage
Moelis’s central driver this quarter is the advisory fee run-rate, which is tied to the pace of deal closings and the health of the capital markets. With revenue projected at 0.44 billion US dollars, the set-up implies a meaningful step-up from the last quarter’s actual 0.36 billion US dollars, consistent with stronger conversion of late-stage mandates. The high structural gross margin of 92.71% last quarter provides room for incremental operating leverage as revenues scale, evidenced by the forecasted year-over-year expansion in EPS to 0.82. If compensation ratios hold near historical ranges and non-compensation costs remain tightly managed, EBIT could trend toward the 0.09 billion US dollars estimate. The risk to this view comes from timing of closings and any slowdown in equity or credit issuance that can defer fees beyond the quarter. A secondary watchpoint is fee rate integrity; while the firm historically protects pricing, competitive intensity in certain verticals could weigh on realized revenue if closings bunch into a narrower set of mid-sized deals.
Complex M&A and Restructuring as the Most Promising Growth Pillars
The most promising opportunity set is in complex M&A and restructuring, where mandates typically carry higher execution intensity and durable fee pools. A gradual stabilization in financing costs can unblock strategic transactions, while still-elevated credit dispersion supports restructuring assignments in select sectors. The company’s forecast does not break out segment revenues, but the year-over-year revenue growth expectation of 29.19% indicates broad-based improvement from a weak base, with complex deals likely contributing more significantly to mix. Earnings sensitivity is high because incremental gross profit flows through with limited additional cost, so even modest upside in complex deal closings can elevate EBIT above the 0.09 billion US dollars estimate. The principal downside risk remains the cadence of regulatory approvals and buyer-seller valuation gaps, which can push closings into later periods and flatten the anticipated uplift.
Stock Price Drivers: Fee Conversion, Compensation Ratio, and Capital Markets Tone
This quarter’s stock reaction will likely be driven by three linked variables: fee conversion from pipeline to closed transactions, the reported compensation ratio, and management’s commentary on market tone. A positive surprise on fee conversion tends to translate directly into upside for both revenue and EPS given the firm’s high gross margin baseline. The compensation ratio will be scrutinized for discipline as activity rises; a ratio that scales slower than revenue would amplify EBIT and EPS versus the 0.09 billion US dollars and 0.82 consensus markers. Commentary on underwriting windows, leveraged finance availability, and cross-border activity will shape forward expectations; a constructive narrative about deal visibility into the next two quarters could support multiple expansion even if headline revenue lands near the midpoint of estimates. Conversely, any signal of elongated closing timelines or competitive pricing pressure could temper enthusiasm and shift focus back to the durability of the backlog.
Analyst Opinions
The prevailing sell-side stance over the recent months skews bullish, with a majority expecting improving results as advisory pipelines convert and financing markets exhibit better functionality. Several well-followed institutions highlight that the sequential step-up in revenue toward 0.44 billion US dollars and the projected EPS of 0.82 mirror a healthier environment for both strategic and liability-management activity. Analysts emphasize that the company’s high gross margin profile and cost discipline set a favorable backdrop for EBIT upside relative to the 0.09 billion US dollars estimate if closings cluster late in the quarter. The constructive cohort points to a recovery arc from prior trough conditions, noting that a more consistent issuance backdrop and narrowing valuation gaps could unlock incremental mandates across sectors. On balance, the bullish view anchors on operating leverage, resilient fee rates, and a supportive market tone that together raise the probability of upward estimate revisions.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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