On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump has stated that the United States does not seek to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran. The formal text of the memorandum, released on June 17, commits both nations to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days. That window expired on August 17, yet talks remain deadlocked with no substantial progress, hampered by serious disagreements over issues such as the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Iranian official has indicated that Tehran has set a deadline of several weeks for Washington to fully implement the agreement, warning that Iran will not wait indefinitely while the US maintains its maritime blockade. Meanwhile, a commander from Iran's Revolutionary Guard has suggested that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened if the US fulfills its commitments.
On August 17, 2026, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 950.58 yuan per gram and settled at 955.72 yuan per gram, a 1.33% increase from the previous trading day's close. Trading volume for the day reached 41,087 lots, with open interest at 129,725 lots. During overnight trading, the contract opened at 952.40 yuan per gram and closed at 957.80 yuan per gram, up 0.22% from the afternoon settlement. For silver, the main Shanghai futures contract opened at 15,895.00 yuan per kilogram and settled at 16,143.00 yuan per kilogram, marking a 2.68% gain from the prior close. Volume stood at 588,026 lots, with open interest of 317,332 lots. In overnight trading, the silver contract opened at 15,997 yuan per kilogram and closed at 16,134 yuan per kilogram, a slight 0.06% dip from the afternoon close.
The US 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.68% on August 17, a change of 0.05% from the prior day, while the 10-year to 2-year yield spread stood at 0.51%, moving 0.03%. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the Au2610 contract saw long positions increase by 3 lots and short positions decrease by 3 lots. Total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts reached 274,776 lots, down 7.15% from the previous session. For the Ag2610 silver contract, long positions fell by 44 lots while short positions rose by 2 lots. Total silver contract volume was 883,787 lots, a decline of 15.07%.
In the precious metals ETF space, gold ETF holdings rose by 0.29 tonnes to 1,023.53 tonnes, while silver ETF holdings remained steady at 14,939 tonnes. On the arbitrage front, the domestic gold premium stood at -17.84 yuan per gram, while the silver premium was -142.94 yuan per kilogram. The gold-to-silver price ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 59.20, down 0.39% from the previous day, while the overseas ratio stood at 67.33, a decrease of 0.16%.
Fundamentally, trading data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange for August 17 showed gold trading volume of 34,468 kilograms, down 8.97% from the previous session. Silver volume reached 313,332 kilograms, a decline of 13.90%. Gold delivery amounted to 11,872 kilograms, while silver delivery totaled 74,970 kilograms.
Gold Strategy: Cautiously Bullish
Geopolitically, no progress has been made in negotiations, and Iran has set a multi-week deadline for the US to fully implement the memorandum, meaning markets still await clearer signals on the geopolitical front. However, supported by weak US economic data, market risk appetite remains in a recovery and warming phase. As such, gold prices are expected to maintain a range-bound but firm pattern in the near term, with the Au2610 contract likely trading within a band of 945 yuan per gram to 985 yuan per gram.
Silver Strategy: Cautiously Bullish
Silver currently follows a similar logic to gold, with short-term fundamental factors carrying lower weight in its pricing. Silver prices are also expected to sustain a range-bound firm pattern, with the Ag2610 contract likely oscillating between 15,500 yuan per kilogram and 16,500 yuan per kilogram.
Arbitrage: Pause
Options: Pause
Risks
Overseas liquidity risks and continued exit of speculative positions remain the key risks to monitor.
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