A report from Jefferies indicates that CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) is poised to be a major beneficiary of the rebound in aluminum prices, with the firm reiterating its "Buy" rating and lifting the target price from HK$34.1 to HK$43.8. Jefferies noted that share prices in the copper and aluminum sectors have not yet fully priced in the current strength of commodity prices, whereas valuations in the lithium sector appear more reasonable. Considering supply constraints alongside demand driven by the energy transition and AI-related themes, as well as recent positive macroeconomic developments and geopolitical safety factors, the firm maintains a positive long-term outlook and favors copper and aluminum. The report highlighted that CHINAHONGQIAO, as one of the world's leading aluminum producers, holds a core advantage in its exceptionally strong cost competitiveness, positioning it in the first quartile of China's aluminum production cost curve. This competitive "moat" is primarily built on two key dimensions: 1) Complete self-sufficiency in key raw materials: the company has achieved full self-sufficiency in bauxite and alumina, providing a significant buffer against upstream raw material price increases and ensuring stable profit margins; and 2) Highly efficient production: the company has achieved lower unit energy consumption through technological optimizations. Furthermore, the company provides substantial shareholder returns through dividends (with a payout ratio exceeding 60%) and share buybacks.
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