Global semiconductor equipment leader ASML Holding NV saw its shares decline by up to 4.7% in European trading, with its US-listed ADRs falling over 1% pre-market. This movement follows the introduction of new legislative draft in the US Congress last week targeting exports of advanced process equipment. Market anxiety stems primarily from the proposed Multilateral Alliance for Technological Control of Hardware (MATCH) Act. This legislation aims to legally compel allied nations to synchronize restrictions on exports to China, thereby eliminating competitive disadvantages previously faced by US companies due to inconsistent policy implementation among different countries.
Initiated with bipartisan support, the bill signifies a further escalation of export controls, directly impacting core service segments of the semiconductor supply chain. The MATCH Act explicitly demands that allies like the Netherlands and Japan establish export review systems as stringent as those of the US within 150 days. Failure to comply would grant the US Commerce Department authority to exercise extraterritorial jurisdiction. The proposed restrictions extend beyond the most advanced Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems to include widely used Immersion Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) equipment.
More critically, the bill proposes banning equipment suppliers from providing routine maintenance, software updates, and critical spare parts for already sold restricted equipment. Market analysts view this "after-sales service cutoff" clause as a potential severe blow to China's mature-process chip manufacturing capabilities. While ASML had previously flagged policy risks in its financial reports, the potential impact of the proposed legislation appears to have exceeded investor expectations. Financial data shows that the Chinese market contributed approximately 33% to ASML's global sales in 2025, representing its most significant revenue growth driver. The company also projected that its sales in China would account for 20% of total sales in 2026, though sales of older models would remain unaffected.
Analysts are divided on the financial implications. Analyst Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam estimates the new restrictions could reduce ASML's sales by a "single-digit" percentage. Conversely, J.P. Morgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande, in a recent assessment, suggested that if the bill becomes law, ASML's annual Earnings Per Share (EPS) could face a reduction of up to 10%, with its business share in China potentially declining further from the projected 20%. Deshpande further noted that sales to other regions would "increase significantly, but not enough to offset the lost Chinese revenue," as non-Chinese chipmakers ramp up capacity in response. He indicated that the global market would be most affected, writing, "The current tightness in chip capacity across multiple markets will be sharply exacerbated by the implementation of these restrictions."
Simultaneously, shares of other leading global semiconductor equipment suppliers, including Tokyo Electron and Applied Materials Inc., also trended lower, reflecting the bill's potential to deeply disrupt the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain. ASML has officially declined to comment on the legislative development. The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated that trade policy should be independently regulated by sovereign nations. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly stated its firm opposition to the US broadening the concept of national security and abusing export control measures to maliciously blockade Chinese companies.
Although the bill is still in the early legislative hearing stage and requires votes from both houses of Congress and presidential approval to become law, its bipartisan backing leads markets to generally believe there is a high probability of it passing in the second half of 2026.
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