At the "2026 Finance Annual Conference: Forecasts & Strategies and 2025 Global Wealth Management Forum" held in Beijing from December 18-20, 2025, Zhou Yingbo, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of YUNZHOU Capital, addressed debates about AI sector bubbles. He noted that while localized leverage risks exist—such as OpenAI’s aggressive $1.4 trillion investment commitment with Oracle over five to six years, starkly contrasting its current $10+ billion annualized revenue—the broader landscape remains healthy. Major players like Google, Amazon, Alibaba, and Tencent maintain robust balance sheets with no systemic leverage concerns.
Regarding ROI, Zhou argued it’s premature for static assessments. Despite $1 trillion global AI investments in recent years yielding limited profits so far, significant user penetration has been achieved: over 2 billion people use free AI tools daily, while tens of millions of programmers pay for efficiency-boosting AI solutions. Crucially, AI adoption across industries remains low, with vast sectors yet to integrate AI, making short-term cash flow metrics inadequate for valuation.
Long-term, Zhou projected that AI could elevate global labor productivity by 20% within decades. Against 2024’s $110 trillion global GDP, this would unlock $20–30 trillion in incremental value. Historically, emerging technologies seldom generate immediate profits; thus, AI’s investment case hinges on its transformative potential and efficiency gains over extended cycles.
Zhou concluded that AI’s long-term trajectory is undeniable. Current controversies and volatility won’t diminish its pivotal role in driving productivity dividends and creating sustained opportunities for investors over the next 20–30 years.
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