作者：宋雪涛
2月以来，美债10Y利率从1.0%-1.1%上行到1.5%-1.6%，1个半月（2月-3月中）的上升幅度（~50bp）相当于之前6个月（去年8月-今年1月）的总和。实际利率的上升起了主要作用：2月以来美债10Y实际利率上升了40bp，而（盈亏平衡）通胀预期只上升了13bp，维持在2.2%附近。
图1：实际利率与通胀预期
资料来源：Wind，天风证券研究所
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