Gold's latest market trend analysis:
On July 3rd, the fundamental analysis for gold is as follows: During early Asian trading on Friday, spot gold was trading around $4130 per ounce. The US June non-farm payroll data came in significantly weaker than expected, which notably reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, thereby boosting the gold price. Gold surged more than 2% on Thursday, continuing its previous gains. Spot gold was quoted at $4123.61 per ounce, a gain of 2.3%. The primary catalyst was the much weaker-than-expected US June non-farm payrolls, which showed only 57,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%. This significantly lowered market expectations for a Fed hike this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike before September has dropped to around 51% from 66% prior to the data release. Concurrently, the US Dollar Index declined, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies.
Technical Analysis for Gold
From the daily chart structure of gold, it was unsurprising from a technical perspective that gold closed higher yesterday, breaking through the 5 and 10-day moving averages around 4090, influenced by the non-farm payroll data. Its rhythm still maintains a highly negative correlation with the US dollar. However, gold's surge through the 20-day moving average around 4160 in early Asian trading today is not entirely synchronized with the dollar's rhythm. Moreover, with the US market closed for a holiday today, such a move during Asian hours reflects the current unstable market sentiment. Although gold has breached the 20-day moving average, the special circumstances of the day suggest that short-term gold is unlikely to sustain a continuous strong upward push. It is more likely to engage in back-and-forth consolidation around the 20-day moving average. Therefore, do not blindly follow the early surge today; it is wiser to view the market as undergoing consolidation and adjustment. For the day, resistance can be watched at the 4200 psychological level and the minor high near 4220. Support can be monitored around the 5 and 10-day moving averages near 4090. After the market digests the fundamental impact, gold's price action is likely to revert to moving inversely in sync with the US dollar's rhythm.
Combined with the gold 1-hour chart, the halt in the overnight rebound within the 4140-60 zone was entirely within expectations. However, the subsequent surge in early Asian trading today appears atypical. Technically, this surge has also triggered overbought signals on the hourly chart. Hence, one should not hold excessive expectations for this rally and should instead be wary of potential pressure leading to a pullback. Intraday resistance is first seen near the hourly trendline around 4190-4200. A break above that would bring the minor high near 4220 into focus, though a breakout seems unlikely. With the US market closed, a scenario of prices rising then falling back cannot be ruled out. Intraday support is initially watched around last night's high near 4145. A break below that would shift focus to the 4110-00 area. Overall, for gold's short-term trading strategy today, the primary approach is suggested to be buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic. Key short-term resistance is focused around the 4120-4150 zone, while key short-term support lies around the 4140-4100 zone.
Crude Oil's Latest Market Trend Analysis
Fundamental analysis for crude oil: During early Asian trading on Friday, July 3rd (Beijing time), US crude oil was trading around $68.46 per barrel. The price was primarily supported by buyers seeking to secure supply ahead of the long US Independence Day weekend and short-covering activity. Oil prices edged higher on Thursday. Brent crude settled up 0.58% at $71.54 per barrel, while US crude settled up 0.54% at $68.46 per barrel. The gains were mainly driven by buyers ensuring supply ahead of the US holiday weekend and short covering.
Technical Analysis for Crude Oil
From the daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downward, indicating the medium-term objective trend is entering a downtrend. Crude oil prices have broken below the lower boundary support that held for over three months, with bearish momentum strengthening. It is anticipated that the medium-term price movement will primarily follow a downward rhythm. Looking at the short-term (1-hour) chart, crude oil's price action shows a pattern of alternating primary and secondary trends. After touching support around $67, the price rebounded upwards. It has broken through the most recent Dow Theory high of the previous downtrend, suggesting a temporary end to the short-term objective downtrend rhythm. In early trading, the price is trending upwards within the primary trend, with bullish momentum gradually strengthening. It is expected that intraday crude oil prices will experience a modest upward move, though the upside may be limited. Overall, for crude oil's trading strategy today, the primary approach is suggested to be buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary tactic. Key short-term resistance is focused around the 71.5-72.5 zone, while key short-term support lies around the 67.0-66.0 zone.
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