Sinolink Securities has released a research report stating that over the past month, technology assets weighed on global markets, with AI investment driving up interest rates and the global cost of capital. However, as AI investment has narrowed to U.S. tech, for A-share investors, the worst environment has at least passed for now. Currently, cracks in U.S. technology investment will support a decline in real interest rates for some time. Market breadth may recover somewhat, but an index-level rebound requires patience. The firm recommends: First, against the backdrop of a slowing AI industry trend and diverging fundamentals, the pressure from real interest rates is gradually easing, and gold is entering a favorable allocation window. Second, the energy and chemicals chain, represented by coal, oil, and oil shipping, will continue to benefit from global restocking demand for energy, while also offering dividend attributes. Third, if interest rates continue to decline in the future, export-oriented and overseas expansion sectors will see a recovery, among which white goods, textile manufacturing, commercial vehicles, and home furnishings also carry dividend attributes. The main views of Sinolink Securities Co., Ltd. (600109) are as follows.
AI Industry Trend Slows, Interest Rates Begin Falling Before Inflation
This week, overseas tech fundamentals continued to release slowdown signals: on one hand, Anthropic's revenue compound growth rate has declined notably; on the other hand, bond yields for new-type cloud providers like CoreWeave have surged above 15%, and credit default swap (CDS) spreads have also widened significantly, deepening market concerns about declining long-term returns on AI. The macroeconomic implication is that the ability of U.S. technology financing to attract global capital is weakening. Against the backdrop of AI weakening, U.S. Treasury real rates continue to decline, dragging nominal rates noticeably lower. At the same time, however, U.S. September CPI and PPI both came in above expectations, with the impact of energy prices on inflation spreading to broader areas such as transportation, and the characteristic of "interest rates failing to outpace inflation" is beginning to emerge. Based on experience since 2022, when rates fall before inflation, the dollar tends to weaken, and gold may present a good allocation opportunity.
At the equity market level, global tech stocks pulled back sharply this week, but non-tech sectors actually performed reasonably well. Moreover, although the gain in the All-A index on Friday was limited, market breadth recovered somewhat, which may be a signal that broad-based indices are gradually stabilizing. If a market rebound occurs in the future, it is more likely to be accompanied by rising market breadth, as in August. Over the past month, technology assets weighed on global markets, but the feature of AI narrowing internally to the U.S. market represented the worst state for the market. Now, the loosening of U.S. tech is at least a favorable turning point for A-share non-tech sectors.
In addition, ETFs saw large net inflows this week, which the firm understands as playing a greater role in alleviating liquidity risk rather than signaling that the market will shift into an uptrend: from 2022 to September 2024, ETFs continued to see net inflows but did not change the market's downward trend; in early 2024, after large ETF inflows the market recovered somewhat, but the rebound quickly ended as ETF inflows slowed; during the second round of decline from May to September 2024, ETFs had already accelerated inflows in June and July, but the market bottom did not appear until September. The overall risk period for the market has passed, but a reversal is hard to declare.
Energy Tightness and the Boundaries of Oil Prices
Recently, the U.S.-Iran conflict has continued to seesaw without clear improvement. Over the past period, Middle East crude exports relied heavily on Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia's crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have also begun to decline recently, and global crude and refined product inventories continue to fall. Currently, refinery utilization rates in Europe and the U.S. are already at high levels. Even if the conflict eases, constrained by refinery capacity, tightness on the refined product side will be difficult to significantly improve in the short term, further intensifying energy tightness. It should be noted, however, that surging crude prices and freight rates have eroded refinery profits in Europe and parts of Asia, and refiners may cut production, which would to some extent suppress crude and oil shipping demand, so the upside for oil prices may be limited in the near term. By comparison, coal is entering its demand peak season, and in the short term coal may outperform oil and petrochemicals. That said, crude itself is still supported by global restocking demand. For example, China's crude inventories have clearly destocked and are below the same period in 2025, and imports may increase going forward. At the same time, oil and petrochemicals still carry dividend attributes, and confirmation of a rising center still brings investment value to the stocks.
Export-Oriented and Overseas Expansion Sectors Have Bottomed and Also Carry Dividend Attributes
China's exports in September remained strong, with year-on-year growth of 36.3%, up 11.3 percentage points from the previous reading, corroborating the strong manufacturing PMIs in major global regions in September. By category, in addition to AI continuing to maintain high growth, the year-on-year growth rates of textiles and apparel, home appliances, and automobiles all rose noticeably, indicating that external demand is shifting from the single AI chain structure seen after June toward a more balanced composition. In the past, rising overseas interest rates may have been an important suppressing factor for export-oriented and overseas expansion sectors; if rates begin to decline in the future, suppressed demand from emerging markets such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America is expected to be released, and the K-shaped divergence in China's external demand will further converge. The bottom for export-oriented and overseas expansion sectors has already appeared.
At the same time, within the export-oriented and overseas expansion sectors, white goods, textile manufacturing, commercial vehicles, and home furnishings themselves also offer relatively high dividend yields.
Market Breadth May Recover Somewhat, but an Index-Level Rebound Requires Patience
For A-share investors, the worst environment has at least passed for now: AI investment brought high interest rates and rising global capital costs, but AI has narrowed to U.S. tech. Currently, cracks in U.S. technology investment will support a decline in real interest rates for some time. The market currently lacks the foundation for a V-shaped move, but the risk period has passed in stages, and the firm has begun to make appropriate bets in non-AI areas. Overall, the firm recommends: First, against the backdrop of a slowing AI industry trend and diverging fundamentals, the pressure from real interest rates is gradually easing, and gold is entering a favorable allocation window. Second, the energy and chemicals chain, represented by coal, oil, and oil shipping, will continue to benefit from global restocking demand for energy, while also offering dividend attributes. Third, export data show that AI is no longer the sole standout. If interest rates continue to decline in the future, export-oriented and overseas expansion sectors will see a recovery, among which white goods, textile manufacturing, commercial vehicles, and home furnishings also carry dividend attributes.
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