Investors anticipate that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will go public this year. The valuations of these three technology companies have reached $800 billion, $500 billion, and $350 billion, respectively. Market observers are divided on whether investors will be willing to purchase shares at these exceptionally high valuations.
The eagerly awaited initial public offerings (IPOs) of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are projected to occur this year, yet a significant question remains: will investors agree to pay the premium prices implied by their current valuations? A shareholder letter from SpaceX's Chief Financial Officer, reviewed by Reuters, revealed that Elon Musk's aerospace company achieved an $800 billion valuation in a private equity transaction last December. Market rumors have long suggested the space technology firm is targeting a 2026 listing, which Musk confirmed last month. OpenAI completed a private funding round last October that valued the company at $500 billion, and there is speculation that it is advancing towards an IPO with a target market capitalization of $1 trillion. Anthropic is also believed to be preparing for its IPO. Compared to OpenAI, the company positions itself with a competitive edge of more controlled spending and superior model efficiency. In a funding round led by Microsoft and Nvidia last November, its valuation reached as high as $350 billion. Samuel Kerr, Head of Equity Capital Markets at Mergermarket, stated in a Monday interview that any IPO of such magnitude would constitute a "significant market event." He said, "The world's largest IPO was Saudi Aramco, which was entirely a domestic capital story for Saudi Arabia with substantial participation from Middle Eastern investors. An OpenAI listing would be a completely different scenario." Saudi Aramco achieved a valuation of $1.88 trillion when it went public in 2019. Kerr pointed out that while companies have preferred to remain private for longer in recent years, the current trend of these "large, attractive private companies" targeting the IPO market signals a fundamental shift in industry dynamics. Previously, companies sought to protect their intellectual property, a task that becomes significantly more challenging under the stringent disclosure requirements of being public. However, the need for massive capital to fund growth ambitions—most of which are now tied to artificial intelligence—is now driving them toward public markets.
A Potential Valuation Gap Kerr suggested that the scale and scope of OpenAI's business mean that a weak debut could deliver a "significant shock" to the entire AI sector, investor trading patterns, and the valuations of related companies. Nick Patience, Principal AI Analyst at The Futurum Group, noted that if OpenAI targets a $1 trillion valuation, the potential gap between its private and public market valuations could be substantial. He told CNBC that such a figure corresponds to a "best-case scenario where AGI is imminent." Artificial General Intelligence refers to the stage where AI systems possess capabilities comparable to humans. He added, "Furthermore, the market will scrutinize the company's governance structure and control, especially given Microsoft's stake. Investors will want clarity on the path to profitability beyond corporate partnerships and how it will manage exorbitant computing costs. For better or worse, OpenAI could set the tone for the AI industry." Patience also indicated that Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI employees, presents an alternative AI investment for risk-averse pension funds and conservative asset allocators. "This company emphasizes enterprise-grade safety and security, carries a significantly lower valuation than OpenAI, and its narrative focuses less on the technological marvel of AGI and more on reliability and security for business applications."
The "Musk Premium" Effect However, Kerr believes that "SpaceX stock will be something that everyone wants to own," as the company faces no clear competitor in the space technology sector. He said, "Perhaps on that hype alone, SpaceX could command a valuation of $1.5 trillion." But achieving such a valuation may hinge on the success of its satellite business, Starlink, and its Starship rocket program. Patience stated, "The Starlink business has effectively evolved into a global public utility with stable recurring revenue. Institutional investors would view it as an infrastructure play, similar to telecom or defense stocks, but with a higher growth multiple." "The 'Musk premium' driven by retail investor enthusiasm might fuel a significant first-day pop in the share price, but the long-term holding value will depend on Starlink's recurring revenue and the vision for space-based data centers proposed last year—though realizing that blueprint will still take considerable time."
A Measure of Value Regardless, the IPOs of these companies will provide a more reliable standard for measuring corporate worth and serve as a benchmark for industry valuations. Anna Rasborn, Founder and CEO of Grenadilla Consulting, told CNBC, "As for the post-IPO share price performance, that's an entirely different question. Last year, many companies saw their IPO prices fail to hold, a phenomenon that gave us a clear view of the public market's true opinion on private market valuations." She added, "A uniquely positioned company like SpaceX might be able to sustain its share price due to its unparalleled status, but I believe the post-listing performance will be a true test for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other large language model companies."
The Flow of Capital Michael Field, Morningstar's Chief Equity Strategist, said, "The market is generally willing to pay a high price if the potential returns are sufficiently attractive. Both SpaceX and OpenAI are highly compelling investment propositions. For many investors, the opportunity to participate in these disruptive technology firms is simply too significant to pass up." He also said, "Based on current data, both companies have the potential to rank among the world's highest-valued public companies." Given that an IPO is a fundraising mechanism, the subsequent question is how these companies will deploy the capital they raise. Patience pointed out, "We anticipate a substantial portion of the raised funds will be directed towards custom chip development and energy infrastructure. In the long run, the IPO winners will be those that can clearly articulate a path to building their own compute architecture." He also mentioned this would reduce their reliance on hyperscale cloud providers. Market observers are also closely watching related stocks, as investors might reallocate capital from existing AI investments towards OpenAI and Anthropic. The "Magnificent Seven" index—comprising Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon—has surged over 17% in the past year, but its outperformance may be partly due to highly concentrated market flows. Rasborn stated, "As more IPO options become available, public market investors will have a broader selection of AI-themed investments. This is positive news for both the public markets and retail investors." Nonetheless, given the persistent discussions about an AI bubble, uncertainty remains. She added, "If the market experiences a deep correction or a compression in valuation multiples, the motivation for private investors to push for listings could change. We need to continuously monitor public market valuation multiples to gauge the IPO momentum for these tech firms."
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