According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin is currently mired in a structural predicament, with its price firmly locked between $88,000 and $80,000.
On the upside, the cost basis of investors who entered over the past two years creates heavy selling pressure; on the downside, the holding cost of US spot ETFs (IBIT.US) at approximately $81,500 and order book support at $80,000 provide a cushion.
Although the price remains above the "Realized Market Mean," which represents the average cost basis of active investors, the fierce battle between bulls and bears within this range makes short-term direction highly uncertain.
From the perspective of holder cost structure, the market faces two major groups of potential sellers.
The first consists of investors who bought during the later stages of the 2025 rally and the subsequent decline, with holding periods of 6 to 12 months and a cost basis of approximately $88,000.
The second group comprises early investors who bought 1 to 2 years ago, with an even higher cost basis approaching $100,000.
This year, both groups have repeatedly pushed prices lower: in January, after Bitcoin's price touched the cost line of 6-to-12-month holders, it promptly fell by more than one-third; in May, the price once again reached the cost line of 1-to-2-year holders, followed by a decline of roughly one-quarter.
Notably, during the early October rally, 1-to-2-year holders intensified their selling.
As long as Bitcoin cannot effectively break above $88,000, every upward move will encounter holders choosing to exit near their breakeven point, creating persistent supply pressure.
On-chain data reveals critical support dynamics.
Bitcoin is currently trading above the "Realized Market Mean," the average cost basis of active investors, at approximately $78,000, and also above the cost basis of short-term holders.
Since September 18, the price has consistently remained above both cost levels, an area marked on charts as a bullish trend zone.
Another key reference line is the holding cost of US spot ETFs (IBIT.US) 鈥?the average price at which these funds purchased Bitcoin 鈥?at approximately $81,500.
On October 8 and October 13, Bitcoin's price briefly dipped below this level but quickly recovered.
Since September 21, daily closing prices have remained above this level; if the closing price falls below it, ordinary ETF holders would once again be underwater, and the market would lose its closest on-chain support.
The behavior pattern of long-term holders has undergone a fundamental shift, signaling a reversal in supply-demand dynamics.
Their realized losses peaked on August 12 and have since declined by approximately 85%.
In contrast, during the 2022 bear market, peak losses occurred within weeks after the cycle low.
Since most panic selling has already been completed, an increasing portion of Bitcoin in circulation is now being sold at a profit.
Since 2011, in every bear market, losing holders sold more than profitable ones, while bull markets showed the opposite.
At the June market low, the volume of Bitcoin sold at a loss was approximately 12 times that sold at a profit; however, by late August, this ratio reversed 鈥?currently, for every 1 Bitcoin sold by a profitable holder, approximately 4 are sold in profit.
While profit-taking may slow the pace of recovery, this is a typical characteristic of early bull markets.
Woofun AI's compiled data shows that the sudden shift in ETF fund flows has further exacerbated the lack of buying demand.
In late September, when Bitcoin's price broke above $85,000, US spot ETFs (IBIT.US) significantly increased their holdings.
From September 21 to October 6, these funds purchased nearly $3 billion worth, the fastest buying pace since November 2025.
However, this momentum did not last.
Since October 7, ETFs have shifted to net outflows of approximately $760 million.
Under the dual pressure of continued ETF selling and top buyers selling near breakeven, the market lacks new buying support.
Only when ETF inflow momentum stabilizes again can it clearly indicate that demand has returned.
Futures liquidation clusters and Binance order book structure together define the current price fluctuation space.
On the two-month liquidation heatmap reflecting where leveraged positions may be forced to close, the density of areas around the current price has decreased by more than one-fifth within a week.
The largest liquidation clusters are currently located farther away and roughly equal in size: one slightly below $80,000 and another near $88,000.
If the price falls below $80,000, forced liquidation of long positions could push prices even lower; if the price rises to near $88,000 (the cost support level of 6-to-12-month holders), short sellers may be forced to buy, temporarily supporting the price.
Last week's report noted that buy orders on Binance's spot platform were located near $81,000.
After Bitcoin's price passed through that level on October 8, the largest buy order cluster is now concentrated at $80,000, which surged dramatically on the evening of October 8 and has persisted since.
This buy cluster sits below the holding cost of US spot ETFs (IBIT.US), so the $80,000 to $81,500 range forms an overlap zone between order book support and on-chain support.
If this zone is breached, the liquidation cluster slightly below $80,000 and the "Realized Market Mean" support at $78,000 would come into play.
Macro data and comparisons with historical bear markets reveal the market's unique resilience.
During the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, Bitcoin's price remained below the "Actual Realized Price" for months.
However, in this bear market, the price has never fallen below that level; even at the lowest closing price on June 30, the price was still approximately one-tenth higher than the "Actual Realized Price" and far above long-term holder cost.
Today's September CPI (Consumer Price Index) reading came in higher than expected: headline inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 2.6%.
Following the data release, Bitcoin's price declined, with the gap between household inflation expectations and core inflation reaching its widest in three years.
The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 0.25 percentage points on September 16, its first rate hike since 2023.
Futures traders increased the probability of another rate hike at the meeting ending October 28, while US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3.
Additionally, the "Single Coin Bubble Index" has been at elevated levels since September 28, though the "Global Bubble Index" has not entered the top five since before the October 2025 crash.
If Bitcoin falls to the $80,000 support level, highly leveraged altcoins would be the first to suffer.
In summary, Bitcoin finds itself in a predicament with solid support below and substantial supply above.
In the short term, ETF selling, high CPI data, the upcoming October rate decision and midterm elections, combined with selling pressure from investors who entered over the past two years near their breakeven points, warrant cautious treatment of market conditions.
From a longer-term perspective, however, the cessation of loss-selling, profitable holders dominating buying and selling, and the price never having fallen below the "Actual Realized Price" paint a relatively optimistic picture.
If Bitcoin can hold above $88,000 for several consecutive days and ETF buying flows recover, it would indicate that demand is sufficient to absorb supply pressure.
Once the price falls below the $80,000 support and ETF holding costs, the "Realized Market Mean" at $78,000 will become the next key line of defense.
Relevant data is as of October 13, 2026: including daily on-chain metrics, October 12 ETF fund flow data, and October 14 hourly price, liquidation heatmap, and Binance order book data.
The September core CPI data comes from a report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 14, 2026; the latest daily data may still be subject to revision.
Exchange balance data in this article is sourced from Glassnode's comprehensive address label database, compiled through official public information and independently developed clustering algorithms.
Despite efforts to ensure accuracy, because some exchanges do not disclose official addresses, the data may not fully reflect actual reserves, and users are advised to exercise caution.
Glassnode assumes no responsibility for any consequences arising from data discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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