On Tuesday, March 31, during the Asian trading session, international gold experienced a strong upward surge, briefly testing the key $4,600 level. Driven by a combination of rising risk aversion and adjusted policy expectations, the gold price achieved a phased rebound. However, the upward momentum weakened slightly after the initial surge, and the price is now moving within a critical range, entering a short-term consolidation phase as market caution has increased somewhat.
Looking back at last week's performance, gold had largely stabilized after a period of volatile consolidation, with short-term risks largely released. In the face of a strong US dollar and previous panic selling, gold and silver prices have gradually developed "immunity," no longer falling blindly. After gold briefly and continuously tested support in the $4,350-$4,400 area and held firm—particularly after initially touching near $4,100 and subsequently rising to $4,500—it was clearly stated that this decline represented a "one-step" short-term movement. The selling triggered by geopolitical conflicts is essentially irrational behavior driven by panic sentiment. The "immunity" of gold and silver to dollar strength following a significant drop reflects a repricing as markets return to rationality. Therefore, short-term risks for gold and silver have been sufficiently released, and they are now entering a rebound cycle expected to last 1-2 weeks, which aligns completely with the core view presented last week.
1. International Gold: Technical Correction Needed, Rebound Trend Intact On the daily chart, gold remains within an overall upward trend framework but is currently in a high-level consolidation phase. Key resistance above is focused near the $4,660-$4,750 area, which has repeatedly capped price advances, forming a clear technical hurdle. The core support below is the key $4,500 level; a decisive break below this could trigger a phased pullback. On the 4-hour chart, upward momentum has gradually weakened following the rebound, with technical indicators showing signs of a bearish divergence, suggesting a need for a short-term corrective pullback. If the strong resistance at $4,660 cannot be breached, gold may continue to consolidate, potentially testing the $4,500 support area. However, any correction does not alter the overall upward direction. The trading strategy for gold is primarily to look for buying opportunities on dips, with levels above $4,500 presenting a good entry point. Upside targets are set at the $4,660 resistance followed by the $4,750 resistance. The rebound target for gold remains in the $4,900-$5,000 range.
2. Domestic Gold During Monday's sideways trading, it was emphasized that domestic gold required identifying the right opportunity to establish long positions, with 995 yuan per gram indicated as a reasonable entry point. As of now, the domestic gold price has climbed to 1,022 yuan per gram, with the movement and strength fully meeting expectations. For today's outlook, upward momentum for domestic gold continues to be favored, with the potential for a unilateral upward move. This week's upside target is focused on the high of 1,060 yuan per gram. This rebound opportunity carries strong certainty and should be firmly grasped by following the upward trend.
3. International Silver International silver also possesses potential for an upward breakout, with core attention on the key resistance level at $74.5. If it can effectively break above $74.5 today, it would formally initiate a unilateral uptrend, with subsequent targets set at $78-$80. For short-term trading, using the vicinity of $68 as a defensive level is advised. Maintaining a bullish view above this level and patiently awaiting the release of upside potential after a breakout is recommended.
4. Domestic Silver The current price for domestic silver is near 17.8 yuan per gram. It has been consistently emphasized that bottom-fishing strategies initiated at 15 yuan/gram and 16.5 yuan/gram should be held firmly, awaiting the realization of the trend to capture significant gains expected around May. Currently, domestic silver has essentially stopped falling, and a rise seems only a matter of time. Within this bullish trend, price levels between 17 and 18 yuan per gram are considered compliant entry points, with a medium-term target pointing to around 25 yuan per gram. Physical and medium-to-long-term investors can patiently build positions to capture trend-based returns.
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