On October 29, gold went through a choppy session on Tuesday, with even smaller swings than expected. After a modest early bounce, prices began to pull back, then traded between $4,030 and $4,060. It wasn't until the early morning hours that gold briefly broke higher to a peak of $4,082, only to slip again afterward. The metal ultimately closed at $4,067, forming a bullish doji on the daily chart.
On Thursday (October 29), in the early hours of Beijing time, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% — a result the market had long anticipated. As for Warsh's performance at the press conference, well, it was pretty much what we had predicted: he has never been fond of offering forward guidance, and this time he took ambiguity to the extreme. He said that "accumulating more information will help determine the appropriate monetary policy," which in plain terms means, "I don't know where we go next either — let's wait for the data."
Tuesday night's spike-and-fade price action was actually quite damaging to bullish sentiment. The failure to hold $4,080 shows that selling pressure above is not light. Today's daytime session will likely be spent digesting last night's volatility, and with PCE data due in the evening, it will be hard for the Asian and European sessions to produce any major moves.
Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, three data points will be released together: the US September core PCE price index, third-quarter GDP, and initial jobless claims. PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely. If it comes in above expectations again, the case for a December rate hike will strengthen further, and gold will have to hold its breath again just as it was starting to breathe easier.
From a technical perspective, intraday gold should continue to watch the $4,070–$4,080 resistance zone. A break above would shift focus to the $4,115–$4,120 area. On the downside, initial attention goes to the $4,030 test, with the main support still seen around the psychological $4,000 level. Intraday price action is expected to remain range-bound as the market digests the impact of fundamental events. After this consolidation, new fundamental developments are expected to set the short-term direction. Therefore, intraday trading can consider short-term long and short positions within the above range, while band-level participation is not being considered for now.
In short, the spike to $4,080 and subsequent pullback shows the market is well aware that another hike in December remains on the table. Tonight's PCE data is the second shoe to drop — don't be too aggressive before it lands. The Fed decision hurdle is cleared, but the inflation data hurdle is not. In trading, we seek steady, long-term gains, not to win or lose it all in one shot. If tonight's data triggers big moves, then intraday trading recommendations are as follows: Gold: Sell at $4,048–$4,050, stop loss at $4,060, target $4,000–$3,980. If price holds above $4,070, consider buying on a pullback, targeting above $4,100.
Key economic data and events to watch today: Thursday, October 29, 2026 — 20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24; 20:30 US September core PCE price index year-over-year; 20:30 US September personal spending month-over-month; 20:30 US third-quarter real GDP annualized preliminary reading; 20:30 US third-quarter real personal consumption expenditure quarterly preliminary reading; 20:30 US third-quarter core PCE price index annualized preliminary reading; 20:30 US September core PCE price index month-over-month; 21:15 European Central Bank rate decision; 21:45 ECB President Lagarde holds press conference.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on it do so at their own risk.
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