Wal-Mart will release its quarterly results on November 20, 2025 before the regular market opens; investors will watch whether resilient grocery, traffic gains, and membership growth can offset margin pressures and mixed discretionary spending.
Market Forecast
Consensus compiled in our collected forecast points to Wal-Mart revenue of about $177.38 billion for the current quarter, up roughly 5.8% year over year, EBIT estimated at approximately $7.10 billion with about 8.0% YoY growth, and EPS forecast at about $0.60, implying roughly 12.7% YoY growth. Commentary around the business mix emphasizes steady grocery-led comp growth and ongoing share gains in higher-income cohorts, with Sam’s Club and international segments contributing incrementally. Among Wal-Mart’s businesses, the most promising momentum remains in the U.S. omni-grocery engine—reinforced by e-commerce and fulfillment—supported by membership and marketplace services which provide higher-margin tailwinds.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Wal-Mart delivered revenue of $177.402 billion, a gross profit margin of 25.21%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately $7.026 billion, a net profit margin of 3.96%, and adjusted EPS of $0.68, with revenue growing 4.76% year over year and adjusted EPS up 1.49% year over year. A notable financial highlight was net income growth accelerating sequentially, with quarter-on-quarter improvement of about 56.59% in net profit, reflecting better mix and expense discipline despite a lighter-than-expected EBIT. In main-business highlights, the Walmart U.S. segment generated approximately $120.911 billion in sales, Walmart International delivered about $31.201 billion, and Sam’s Club posted roughly $23.638 billion, while membership and other brought in about $1.652 billion.
Current Quarter Outlook
Wal-Mart U.S. omni-retail and grocery
The U.S. core remains the central narrative for this quarter. Traffic and unit share in grocery continue to underpin top-line stability, as value and breadth of assortment keep consumers engaged through uneven macro data. The company’s focus on everyday low prices while leveraging data-driven category management supports comp sales resilience even if discretionary categories remain softer. Digital integration—particularly pickup, delivery, and store-fulfilled e-commerce—helps drive higher-frequency baskets and convenience-led loyalty, reinforcing the foundation for the revenue forecast near $177 billion. Margin dynamics are centered on mix: grocery still dilutes gross margin relative to general merchandise, yet improving shrink, supplier collaboration, and private brand expansion can cushion gross margin. The U.S. segment’s scale advantage in logistics and distribution, along with continued automation in regional distribution centers and market fulfillment centers, should moderately lift productivity, providing some offset to wage and fuel cost variability.
Sam’s Club and membership economics
Membership and Sam’s Club present a measured profit lever this quarter. Membership fees and related services carry attractive incremental margins, creating a stabilizing backdrop for EPS even if discretionary volumes ebb. Sam’s Club has benefited from improved club traffic, fresh and private-label strength, and continued digitization of the member journey, including Scan & Go and curbside. The membership and other line—at roughly $1.65 billion last quarter—signals the upside from a growing base and potential tiered monetization, and the Sam’s Club segment’s $23.6 billion scale aligns with sustained mid-single-digit comp ambitions. The degree to which Wal-Mart converts ongoing member growth into higher-engagement behaviors—larger baskets, better renewal rates, and adoption of financial and health services—will be watched as a key input to EBIT momentum. This is where operational execution can meaningfully influence EPS in the near term, given the relatively low capital intensity of fee income compared with physical retail expansion.
International and marketplace mix
International offers selective growth and diversification, with regions such as Mexico and Central America often demonstrating steady comps and disciplined store economics, while formats in Canada and select e-commerce-led markets complement the group’s omni ambitions. Currency remains a swing factor, but underlying local-currency comps, where stable, contribute to top-line breadth and inventory turns that support procurement scale. Marketplace expansion inside the U.S. and abroad strengthens the first-party/third-party mix, bolstering gross profit dollars through fee-based revenues and advertising while minimizing inventory risk. Retail media and data analytics tied to marketplace sellers can lift margin mix in the quarter by adding higher-margin revenue streams without proportionate working-capital requirements. The net impact is that even modest GM gains can flow through, helping reconcile EBIT growth expected around 8% year over year with the EPS forecast of $0.60.
Factors most impacting the stock this quarter
Investors will focus on the cadence of U.S. grocery comps and traffic, which have been anchoring the bull case through macro variability. Gross margin commentary—covering shrink, mix between grocery and general merchandise, and private brand growth—will likely frame same-store leverage and EBIT conversion. Guidance around holiday preparedness, inventory discipline, and e-commerce profitability are pivotal to sentiment into the next quarter. The framework around membership monetization, alongside retail media growth rates, can create an upside path for margins even if discretionary categories lag. Any management color regarding consumer bifurcation—strength among higher-income customers versus cautiousness at the lower end—will be assessed for durability of share gains and elasticity of price investments through the seasonally important period.
Analyst Opinions
Across collected previews and commentary, the majority view skews constructive on Wal-Mart’s ability to meet or slightly exceed expectations thanks to grocery-led stability, steady traffic, and membership-driven margin support, while noting a cautious management tone. Analysts emphasize the company’s outperformance over the past year, with expectations centered on mid-single-digit revenue growth and continued EBIT and EPS improvement. One widely held view is that Wal-Mart’s positioning and scale give it latitude to navigate price sensitivity and macro crosscurrents better than peers, enabling continued share gains in essentials. The bullish case highlights resilience in U.S. grocery, incrementally accretive retail media and membership, and operational efficiency in supply chain and automation. A frequently cited caveat is the potential for softer discretionary demand or tariff-related cost noise; however, the prevailing assessment is that Wal-Mart’s model can absorb and adapt without a significant earnings derailment this quarter.
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