【Gold】 A Pakistani diplomat stated that negotiations between the United States and Iran have reached a "stalemate" and are progressing "very slowly." The US remains committed to maintaining its maritime blockade against Iran, which Tehran views as an obstacle to its participation in the talks. Reaching an agreement with the US will require time, and there "should be no rush" on the negotiation issue. Israeli Defense Minister Katz indicated that Israel is prepared to restart a war with Iran, "waiting only for the green light from the US."
Analysis: With negotiations facing renewed obstacles, market focus has shifted to the potential for persistently rebounding inflation if a swift agreement cannot be reached, which would subsequently influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations. Pressure on COMEX gold has increased again near the resistance of the 60-day moving average, suggesting the metal may test lower levels in the short term. A medium-term outlook of high-level consolidation remains the most probable scenario, contingent on the emergence of stagflation dynamics and the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
【Platinum】 The preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for April came in at 54, exceeding expectations of 52.5 and reaching its highest level since May 2022. The Services PMI rose to 51.3, moving back into expansion territory. The Composite PMI preliminary reading was recorded at 52, a three-month high. Price increases for both goods and services were the largest since July 2022.
Analysis: US economic data indicates a degree of resilience, boosting risk appetite and providing support for precious metals like platinum. However, recent weakening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have caused platinum, palladium, and other precious metals to follow silver lower. There is potential for further downside exploration in the near term, but the medium-term view still favors high-level consolidation.
【Zinc】 On April 22, Zijin Mining Group released its Q1 2026 report, showing total mine-produced zinc output of 84,500 tonnes from January to March, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Smelter-produced zinc output totaled 89,800 tonnes, down 10.6% year-on-year. MMG's Q1 report indicated zinc concentrate production of 50,200 tonnes, a 3% year-on-year decline, with output from the Rosebery mine falling 16% primarily due to lower zinc grades and a slight decrease in recovery rates.
Analysis: The pace of incremental global zinc concentrate supply is falling short of expectations. The Q1 reports from both Zijin Mining and MMG corroborate a slowdown in mine-side production. Zinc concentrate treatment charges remain negative, indicating that the tight supply situation at the mine level has not fundamentally eased. On the demand side, the peak season for end-users has been noticeably lackluster, with a slight accumulation of domestic social inventories. Overall, cost support from the mine side remains solid, but weak domestic consumption and inventory build-up are capping upside potential. Zinc prices are expected to trade mainly within a range in the short term.
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