Fidelity International Fund Manager Zhang Yuxiang noted that a significant increase in capital expenditures has led to a pronounced market divergence. While some companies benefit from AI investment gains, others face cash flow pressures and business model adjustments, creating a K-shaped development pattern. Therefore, selectively investing in companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages will be crucial. He expressed optimism regarding long-term opportunities in infrastructure sectors such as semiconductors, storage equipment, and power grids. In the software domain, a cautious stock selection approach is necessary; companies possessing unique data advantages or strong regulatory connections are more likely to succeed during the AI transition. Zhang stated that the primary challenge for markets in the second quarter is not whether the economy will enter a recession, but rather heightened volatility driven by multiple concurrent risks, necessitating a shift in investment strategy towards structural allocation. Geopolitical conflicts may persist longer than initially anticipated by the market, although the overall situation is expected to gradually cool down. However, due to infrastructure damage and replenishment of inventories by various countries, oil prices are unlikely to decline rapidly and are expected to remain in the range of $80 to $90 per barrel, significantly higher than the previous level of around $60, thereby increasing inflation risks. Secondly, concerns about stagflation are growing, and central bank policy paths are diverging globally. Overall, while conflicts and energy supply uncertainties persist, major central banks are likely to adopt a wait-and-see stance in the short term, with policy uncertainty contributing to ongoing market volatility. Faced with increased uncertainty regarding inflation and growth, Zhang Yuxiang recommended that investment portfolios should appropriately include cash, US dollars, short-term inflation-linked bonds, and commodities to enhance defensive capabilities. For bond allocation, high-yield bonds offer income advantages but should focus on stable interest income; investment-grade bonds can provide stable support during market turbulence. Meanwhile, recent market corrections have led to valuation declines in some Asian stock markets and AI-related sectors, presenting opportunities for medium to long-term positioning. The rising focus on energy security is also highlighting the long-term investment value of renewable energy and related industries.
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