RBC Capital Markets warns that the conflict between the US and Iran has entered a more dangerous phase, following attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and Tehran’s targeting of key Gulf infrastructure.
Helima Croft, the bank’s global head of commodity strategy, stated in a note to clients on Wednesday that extreme pressure is building in the region, which could push Brent crude prices above $128 per barrel.
“Given the current dangerous escalation, we still see a scenario where oil prices break through the $128 per barrel high seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, and possibly even surpass the 2008 peak of $146 per barrel, particularly in the worst-case scenario of a full-scale regional war,” Croft said.
Ukraine is also intensifying its attacks on Russia’s oil and refined products sector. The analyst noted that Kyiv has struck over 150 tankers in the Black and Azov Seas this month. These tanker attacks have forced the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to halt crude loading at its Black Sea terminal.
According to RBC data, approximately 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude oil is exported through this pipeline.
“The duration of the stoppage is uncertain, but Kazakhstan’s alternative routes are very limited (and unlikely to fully replace the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s capacity), meaning its oil production (which was 1.7 million barrels per day in June) could face shutdowns,” Croft said.
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Editor: Zhang Jun SF065
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