Goldman Sachs has released a research report noting that nationwide online retail goods GMV growth slowed to roughly flat in September, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.1%, down from 2.2% year-on-year growth in August. Online services sales, meanwhile, grew 8.3% year-on-year, up from 4.9% year-on-year growth in August.
Overall retail sales rose 1.1% year-on-year, surpassing the bank's forecast of 0.3% and the market consensus of 0.5%, with the improvement mainly driven by offline goods and catering sales.
The report stated that factoring in the latest September data, third-quarter online GMV and parcel volume growth came in at approximately 2% and 3% year-on-year respectively, below Goldman Sachs' earlier forecasts of 3% and 4%.
Goldman Sachs accordingly lowered its 2026 industry online GMV and parcel volume growth forecasts from 4% and 5% year-on-year to 3% and 4%, and now expects fourth-quarter growth of 2% and 4% year-on-year respectively (previously forecast at 5% and 6%).
Goldman Sachs noted that year-on-year improvement in instant retail and food delivery businesses will drive the quarterly performance of Alibaba-W (09988) and JD.com-SW (09618) for the quarter ended September. The bank currently forecasts that Alibaba's cloud business revenue growth will accelerate in the second fiscal quarter ended September, with e-commerce profitability stabilizing. Excluding instant retail, e-commerce business profit is expected to grow 1% year-on-year, while CMR is expected to decline 5%. There is room for upward revision to earnings per share forecasts. The bank maintains its Buy rating and target price of HK$172.
The bank also maintains a Buy rating and target price of HK$169 for JD.com. Goldman Sachs has an equal Buy rating on Meituan-W (03690) with a target price of HK$123, and forecasts third-quarter food delivery EBIT of approximately RMB 600 million.
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