Saudi Arabia's crude exports climbed to a four-month peak, while Russia's seaborne crude export earnings hit a three-month high, according to recent data, signaling shifting dynamics in the global oil market.
Data released by the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) on Tuesday showed that Saudi Arabia's crude exports rose by roughly 3.3% in July compared to June, reaching 4.125 million barrels per day, the highest level since March. Meanwhile, the kingdom's crude production expanded from 7.122 million barrels per day in June to 8.135 million barrels per day.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that crude and refined product exports from Saudi Arabia both increased in July as regional tensions eased. However, he cautioned that August exports could weaken, particularly from Red Sea ports, due to the resurgence of tensions linked to the Houthi movement.
The data also revealed that Saudi refinery crude processing volumes dipped by 20,000 barrels per day in July to 2.478 million barrels per day, compared to 2.498 million barrels per day in June. Direct crude burning for power generation also declined by 22,403 barrels per day from June levels, settling at 561,100 barrels per day.
In the four weeks leading up to September 20, Russia's seaborne crude exports saw a slight decline to 3.53 million barrels per day, yet the total export value climbed to approximately $2.1 billion per week, marking the highest since the week of June 14, largely propelled by rising global oil prices. On Tuesday, Brent crude futures fell 1.78% to $98.55 per barrel.
Latest Developments in Saudi Arabia
On the geopolitical front, an Iranian official indicated that if the United States eases military pressure and lifts the blockade on Iranian ports, Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. However, sources close to Iran subsequently denied these reports.
On Monday, Yemen's Houthi rebels attempted to seize a strategic high ground to sever connections between the Red Sea coast and other areas controlled by Saudi-backed forces. According to reports, an airstrike against the Houthis was imminent on Sunday, but US President Donald Trump cancelled the operation at the last minute.
On Tuesday, signals emerged of a potential restart of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline. Saudi Aramco is accelerating repairs to damaged pumping stations, and tanker arrivals have been observed at the Yanbu port, with the goal of resuming crude exports as early as this week. The pipeline restart could ease supply disruption pressures, though the pace of recovery and safety of Red Sea shipping routes remain uncertain.
Previously, a drone attack had forced Saudi Arabia to shut down the pipeline on September 13.
Russia's Export Revenue Hits Three-Month Peak But Faces Headwinds
Russian oil export revenues have recently climbed to their highest level in over three months, but this momentum now faces dual pressures: Saudi Arabia's accelerated restoration of its western coast pipeline supply, and a newly signed US tariff authorization act that has made India, the largest buyer of Russian crude, cautious about future purchases.
According to data, in the four weeks ending September 20, Russia's seaborne crude exports eased slightly to 3.53 million barrels per day, with total export value rising to $2.1 billion per week, the highest since mid-June, driven by climbing global oil prices.
However, Saudi Arabia is bypassing damaged pumping stations to restart the East-West pipeline, a move that has already pushed global oil prices lower, placing downward pressure on Russian crude prices.
Concurrently, Trump has signed legislation authorizing tariffs of up to 100% on the top five energy-importing countries from Russia. Indian buyers, who have been the largest purchasers of Russian seaborne crude in recent months, have grown wary and may reduce imports.
Reports suggest India could slash its share of Russian crude imports from more than half to between 20% and 30%, potentially cutting daily purchases by over one million barrels, forcing Russia to seek alternative buyers.
Ongoing Strikes on Russian Refineries Boost Export Volumes
Sustained attacks on Russian refining facilities have intensified export pressure. Over the past week, refineries with a combined processing capacity of nearly one million barrels per day have been fully or partially shut down, with strikes hitting facilities in Syzran, Yaroslavl, Moscow, Ufa, and Kuibyshev.
These attacks have reduced Russia's domestic crude processing volumes, and a portion of the crude that cannot be absorbed domestically has been redirected to export channels. Data indicates that so far this year, Russia's seaborne exports exceed the average for any full year since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 by nearly 300,000 barrels per day.
Trump has publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the damage to Russia's diesel refining capacity, attributing rising diesel prices to Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries rather than to the situation in the Middle East.
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